For what seems like honestly the 10th weekend in a row, Donald Trump said the war with Iran is so close to ending. Right before we got push notifications that we'd resumed the bombing and we're back at war. And so this is what happened, the US launched new strikes on Iran targeting [00:00:15] missile sites and boats. Which confuses me because their entire Navy has been at the bottom of the Strait of Hormuz for literally two months. And all their missile sites had already been destroyed months ago. Weird how that works out but. Regardless, the bombs are once again dropping, you might think I guess we're back to square one, but Trump would say no, no, forget the [00:00:35] bombs, we're still good, the ceasefire is still on. In fact, negotiations with Iran are proceeding nicely. It will only be a capital G great deal for all and no deal at all. Back to the battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before and nobody wants that. So it'll be a [00:00:55] great deal. whatever that means, uh or we'll be shooting once again. And every time we shoot, it will always be bigger than it's ever been before. And that's never actually solved it, but probably next time it will, don't even worry about it. The issue is that uh Iran doesn't [00:01:11] agree that we're totally cool and we're just negotiating in good faith. They've accused the US of violating the ceasefire, and they threaten retaliation after the new strikes. They're obviously worked up, but bear in mind, they were just. attacked by the US military. So that's probably gonna make you pretty mad. Now look, oh for America's side, Trump is [00:01:31] saying that they were putting more mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Which look, if they did that, then that is a violation of the ceasefire. So that's fair. But also bear in mind, it's a weird thing for them to do considering that they've been utterly desperate for a deal, Trump says for months now. So why would they be putting mines in the Strait of Hormuz when [00:01:49] all they want is to finally finish this thing in cry uncle? So the whole thing is very confusing. And Israel also doesn't seem to be done with the whole bombing thing. Netanyahu says that Israel plans to intensify their attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. That is a nice way of saying the [00:02:05] conquering of Lebanon will continue until we say we're done with it. Now, that could be because of renewed Hezbollah activity or it could be that maybe that we actually are getting close to a deal with Iran. And Benjamin Netanyahu doesn't want it, so he starts attacking Lebanon. [00:02:21] So Iran can get mad at that. I've reminded you for a long time that Israel does have the ability if they wanted to torpedo basically any deal. Maybe it's that, I don't know, the fog of war could be ruining everything. But it is interesting that Trump is also very belatedly in this process [00:02:37] adding into supposedly what makes it a capital G great deal is that he wants basically the entire Middle East to join the Abraham Accords. maybe not so much. mean, he lists a bunch of countries that have and then says they all have but then says that will allow some not to. [00:02:53] So the whole thing is vague. I don't know, maybe he's just relaying another one of the marching orders he was giving by Benjamin and Yahoo. I don't know, Keith. Do you think were we close to a breakthrough? Are we close to a breakthrough? Was this just another way to get some good bets on polymarket? What do you think? I still don't even know why we're doing this. No one's [00:03:15] told us why we're even in this war, other than because of nuclear stuff, I guess. But supposedly we had already obliterated their nuclear capacity in a previous operation, so that doesn't make sense. And I actually think that Donald Trump doesn't even know. I truly don't think he's [00:03:34] in charge here. I know Netanyahu is basically telling America what to do, but we don't know. who is actually leading this operation. Because I'm telling you right now, it is not Donald Trump. Donald Trump doesn't care. He's not someone who really particularly cares about [00:03:54] facts or operations. And so I'm not sure who is in charge of this, but I know it's not Trump. So who's gonna get us out of it? I don't know who's leading it. Yeah, I don't know. And he's very easy to manipulate, obviously. I saw over the weekend that- I think Israel had told [00:04:11] Trump that Iran was trying to assassinate Ivanka, which just maybe that's true. But that also feels like what you'd ask chat GPT, like what should I say to get Trump worked up to torpedo a peace plan? I don't know. And he's a small minded guy. He looks really bad. It's gonna [00:04:31] be very hard for him to get some sort of deal that he can actually pitch as a win. And I believe that whatever deal he ends up getting is going to look suspiciously close to the JCPOA, which he doesn't want to admit is all that he's capable of getting after months and [00:04:46] months of capital V victory. And so we're in a pretty tough spot. That's the way it looks. mean, Iran's already won. Let's be clear, Iran has already won this war. It could keep going on, but they've already won. They've won in terms of they've expanded into the straight [00:05:03] of her moves, which they didn't. technically control before they do control now. I think they're going to control whenever this ends. And they've also won because they've made us looking totally incompetent and weak, which Donald Trump is. But it's just embarrassing that we have gotten ourselves into this and there's seemingly no way out. this could go [00:05:24] on until for a year, it could stop tomorrow. Iran's already won this war. Yeah, their control of the straight up for moves is stronger than it was their control over their internal affairs is stronger than it was. Nobody can conceive of some sort of rebellion actually taking down the regime now. It's an absolute mess. Thank you, Donald Trump.