Iran's parliament voted in favor of closing a major shipping route, putting as much as one fifth of the world's oil supply at risk. It could cost suppliers big time. As Forbes finds that roughly $1 billion worth of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz daily. [00:00:17] As of this moment, President Donald Trump has announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire. We're going to have to wait and see if that's actually true and if both parties abide by said ceasefire. But in the meantime, war with Iran has already had an impact on the price of oil. [00:00:36] And as you heard in that video from Fox News, the Iranian parliament has already voted in favor of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, where there's quite a bit of oil being transported, because Iran, of course, is an oil producing country. [00:00:51] In fact, around a fifth of the world's oil and related products flow through the Strait of Hormuz each day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A similar share of liquefied natural gas that has been cooled for shipment [00:01:07] also makes the journey. Now more than 80% of those fuels go to Asia. China is a huge buyer of Iranian fuel, and so closing the Strait of Hormuz could mean that 17 billion barrels of oil could be removed from the global markets. [00:01:25] These Asian countries, China being one of them, would look to purchase oil from other oil producing countries in the global market. And that means limited supply, higher demand. That's going to increase oil prices. So the war is already increasing energy costs for consumers. [00:01:42] In the United States, the price of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to nearly 3% last week to $3.22. And that's according to the AA motor club. And according to the Wall Street Journal today, prices were below $70 a barrel [00:01:57] before Israel struck Iran this month. Brant crude, the international benchmark, spiked above $81 a barrel before falling back to trade around 0.6% higher at about $77.50. Recently, WTI, the U.S. [00:02:13] Equivalent, rose a similar amount to slightly over $74 a barrel. So hopefully the cease fire is real. Hopefully we avoid getting dragged into a regime change war in Iran. I've learned to not be as optimistic and hopeful as I would like to be, but [00:02:31] we're just going to have to wait and see. Jake. Thoughts? Yeah, so they think they've got Iran cornered because their most effective attack would be against the Strait of Hormuz and blocking it off and causing economic damage that Anna talked about. But it would affect a lot of their allies, which would then be angry with Iran. [00:02:49] For example, China has been saying, hey, this was a terrible and illegal attack by America on Iran, but if you cut off the oil to China, then they might be aggrieved by that and then you're in a tough spot. But most of all, that's where most of Iran's oil goes through. [00:03:04] So that would cost themselves a ton of money. So we are assuming that they won't do that. I don't think that is a wrong assumption. For reasons that I'm going to explain to you in a second. So far, by the way, the oil price is 3%. Change is not that big a deal. And so so far not that bad. [00:03:21] And the markets are reacting like they think that this is not going to be a big deal. And it's not really a big war. The markets went up today. They didn't even go down. Okay. So I think they're wrong. And so it'll be interesting again here to say I think I'm saying [00:03:37] that I think the market is wrong. So we'll see about that. It's a bold comment. Right. But why do I say that. Because I've never seen Israel be satisfied with enough war. So Trump says it'll be all over in 24 hours. [00:03:52] My guess is Israel will find a way to say, nope, Iran violated the deal. So we have to go back. I mean, they're not going to say, oh, we violated the deal, when in reality it's almost, almost every single time Israel breaks a ceasefire, [00:04:08] whether it's Gaza, whether it's Iran, whether it's anyone else, they and by the way, now us too, we say, oh yeah, we're going to give you two weeks. Just kidding. We were giant liars, and we just bombed the living crap out of you. So, So my guess is Israel agitated. [00:04:23] Agitated until they get a bigger war, and then the markets go, oh, I can't believe that happened. And and when you say regime changes, Trump did just yesterday, right. You give the Ayatollah no other out. He thinks, all right then I guess I'm a dead man anyway. [00:04:39] So I have no reason for restraint anymore. Right. So and this ceasefire might be a ruse because they got word that Iran is planning to do something in the next 24 hours, and it's just to slow them down. Or if Iran does do it, they go see they violated the ceasefire. [00:04:56] But I would be shocked if it held because like I said, I've never seen Israel satisfied with peace. - They always want more war. - Yes. And just to give you guys the statement from Trump over the weekend that hinted at his, you know, [00:05:13] consideration of engaging in a regime change war in Iran, he wrote that regime change has quickly become, Come. Oh, that's actually from Charlie Kirk. This is Trump's comment. He says it's not politically correct to use the term regime change. But if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, [00:05:31] why wouldn't there be a regime change? Listen, the people of Iran should pursue that regime change on their own. It is not the place of the United States, and certainly not the place of Israel to go in there and do a regime change [00:05:46] war on their behalf so they can install or so Israel can install some sort of puppet for their government. Come on. And it reminds me of when they said about Iraq that we're going to be greeted as liberators. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Were we greeted as liberators? [00:06:01] So there's guys. It's the same exact playbook. They're being lazy. And the reason they're being lazy is they're like, we have American media 100% in our pocket. We have US Congress nearly 100% in our pocket. We had Biden in our pocket. We have Trump in our pocket. So we could just be just tell people the same exact lies [00:06:17] we told them last time WMD. Oh, we're not done yet. Oh, they moved the WMD. We have to keep going. Now it's regime change. Oh, they were the aggressors. They're the violent terrorists. We're the ones doing defending ourselves. It's all the same. Lies 24 over seven. [00:06:34] So, look, I think that, if Iran gets to a situation where they think, okay, all hope is lost and we're not going to be able to prevent this war, they're going to switch to, okay, now let's have a real war. [00:06:50] And I hope that never comes. But if it does, I'd be shocked if they didn't block the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, they'd be kind of nuts not to. That's their one go to move. And by how much? We're howling ahead of time, we're accidentally tipping off that. [00:07:08] That's the thing that we care most about. Every press reports like, well, they better not take out the Strait of Hormuz because that would hurt them more than anything else. And they better remember that. Okay. And I'm like, oh, okay. So you're super panicked about the Strait of Hormuz. So you're with that kind of, you know, Obvious concern. [00:07:27] It'd be nuts if Iran didn't bomb that, if we're in the middle of a real war, etc.. And by the way, I don't know. Iran might have terrible capabilities left. They might not have much capabilities at all, or they might have a lot more capabilities than we realize. That's the risk of war. You don't know what's going to happen next. [00:07:44] Can their drones take out our ships? I don't know. Nobody's ever attacked a ship with drones before. Right. If they're sitting there, as you know, once the strait is blocked and they can't, especially if we have any in the Persian Gulf and they can't leave. You could just endlessly attack that ship. So we'll see. [00:08:00] We'll see, I hope I hope none of it happens. - And the cease fire holds. - I agree with you. But look, if a war with Iran does happen, if the US gets dragged into it and it's a prolonged regime change war on behalf of Israel, I'm sure we'll all feel super relieved that Republicans are cutting [00:08:20] nearly $1 trillion in funding for Medicaid so we can pay for this war. Every time you ring the bell below, an angel gets its wings. Totally not true, but it does keep you updated on our live shows.