The ayes have it. The motion is agreed to. The One Big Beautiful Bill act, as ordered, reported favorably to the House of Representatives with a favorable recommendation. Mr. Chair, on the vote there were 17 ayes, 16 noes, and four present. And we count that as a big win tonight. There's a lot more work to do. [00:00:17] We've always acknowledged that towards the end there will be more details to iron out. We have several more to take care of, but I'm looking forward to very thoughtful discussions, very productive discussions over the next few days, and I am absolutely convinced we're going to get this in final form and pass it. The rare Sunday night vote that took place in the Budget Committee in the House, [00:00:37] you heard from first Jodey Arrington, who is the chairman. He's of Texas, the chairman of the budget committee there. So after a weekend jank of all these late night negotiations between the Republican leadership and the holdouts that they had, those are the, you know, the 4 or 5 hardliners that held [00:00:54] out in this in this big, beautiful bill, as they're calling it. It's clear that major hurdle of getting out of the the committee. Then the next step would be on to the floor, then on to the Senate, and presumably chop to pieces there and then back. [00:01:10] The four holdouts on the House Budget Committee, though, agreed to vote present instead of no. So they went from no to present, not no to yes on this bill. What they're calling the Big Beautiful Bill act. And that's what the president called it, allowing the legislative package to be [00:01:25] recommended favorably to the House floor. And before we give you and we go into the details there, tell me what you think. So I think that everybody's distracted by 100 different flying squirrels that Trump is throwing out every day. When this is the real deal, this is the most important thing. [00:01:43] This is where they're going to blow up the budget. They're going to put like $5 trillion extra on the debt. And at the end, after Michael gives you the details of what's going on, I'm going to explain what the real story is, okay? The real story, it is something that we've seen in our lifetimes over and over again. [00:02:00] Is there a chance that this story ends a little differently than it has in the past? A small chance, but they'll probably run the same exact playbook. So let's tell you what's happening now, and then I'll tell you what. - The playbook. - Okay. So one of the the major sticking points here that had these four [00:02:16] members of Congress hold out and then come back with present votes, and those those members of Congress are Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Rasheen of Oklahoma. Andrew Clyde, you see there. I'm not reading them in order, but they're coming from the top of my head. Andrew Clyde of Georgia and Chip Roy of Texas. [00:02:33] There was also Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania, who voted no the other day. So they came around these four so they could get out of committee. But one of the major sticking points that that have held this back for these guys is, is our Medicare cuts. [00:02:49] Currently, the Energy and Commerce Committee's Medicaid provisions are expected to reduce spending by $625 billion, but leave 7.6 million more people uninsured by 2034. That's according to preliminary estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. [00:03:05] But the hardliners here that we talked about, they want even more cuts. So as the legislation is currently written, work requirements take effect in 2029, but they're pushing for the requirements to start as soon as 2027, which would kick even more people off of their insurance. [00:03:23] They also want to reduce the amount of money the federal government pays to state run Medicaid programs Sunday night, though, in agreeing to change their votes to present, Roy wrote on social media after that vote. This the bill does not yet meet the moment I joined with three of my colleagues [00:03:40] to vote present out of respect for the Republican Conference and the president to move the bill forward. It gives us the opportunity to work together this week to get the job done. Their concession, though, came after public pressure from Donald Trump, who wrote on Truth Social on Friday. [00:03:57] And this is before that vote. I believe Republicans must unite behind the one big, beautiful bill. The country will suffer greatly without the legislation and their taxes going up 65%. We don't need grandstanders in the Republican Party. Stop talking and get it done. [00:04:13] And on Friday, when that other vote happened, the vote that didn't get it out of committee, where they where they voted against it, they were defying the president here. So they were saying, you can call us what you want, but we're going to vote this way today. Carolyn Leavitt doubled down on that push and made a blatantly false claim. [00:04:30] In so doing, have a listen to the press secretary. It is absolutely essential that Republicans unite behind the one big, beautiful bill and deliver on President Trump's agenda. There is no time to waste. Americans gave Republicans a once in a generation opportunity [00:04:45] to course correct our country over many wrongs over the past four years, and Americans are counting on Republicans to work as hard as President Trump is in this white House every day on Capitol Hill, send this legislation to his desk as soon as possible for his signature. Is the president okay with this bill adding to the deficit? [00:05:05] This bill does not add to the deficit. In fact, according to the Council of Economic Advisers, this bill will save $1.6 trillion. And the president absolutely understands and hears the concerns of fiscal conservatives and of Americans who want to get our fiscal house in order. [00:05:22] That's what the intention of this bill is, right. But let's tell you the truth about this bill. Between the new spending and the lost tax revenue, the measure would increase the nation's $36.2 trillion debt by at least 2.5 trillion over the next decade. [00:05:40] Well, now, this big, beautiful bill that is not yet ready to pass heads to the Rules Committee, which is where more changes can be made before it goes to the full caucus. Speaker Johnson, for his part, set a deadline this week of this week for the House to take a floor vote. [00:05:56] But as of right now, the bill still lacks support. In order to pass. And it won't go to the floor until it does, they can only lose two votes on the floor of Congress. Of all the lawmakers are present and voting. And to boot, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, who was one of those four? [00:06:14] He is, you know, he's against these Medicaid cuts and not going far enough, but he also has, is holding out so that he can get a, less regulation on silencers, on guns, and that in the, in the firearms bill, and he's holding his vote here [00:06:33] hostage so that they stop the regulations on the suppressors or silencers for guns. - Oh, good. - Good, good. So we're going to have massive trillions of dollars in tax cuts for the rich and help assassins. Okay. All right. Great. [00:06:48] That's a relief, by the way. Blue lives matter. Silencers are My police friends. Okay, anyway, random side issue here. Okay, now let. Not random because that's part of this bill and part of what's holding it up. [00:07:04] - And what you said is absolutely true. - So yeah. Okay. So now let's get to the major playbook. So how is this going to play out if its history is any guide? This is what happened. So the far right in Congress, always in the House in the beginning, [00:07:20] whether they're called a Freedom Caucus or the Tea Party or whatever other moniker they put on, it will huff and puff and go, oh my God, the deficit, the deficit, the deficit is the most important thing. And you're like, okay, then why are you doing 5 trillion in tax cuts? No no no. Cut, cut cut from the poor. [00:07:37] Give it to the rich. Cut from the poor. Give it to the rich. You haven't cut from the poor enough. You haven't cut from the middle class enough. Make it more regressive. Right. And then they'll have a fake drama like. Oh, is it going to pass? Is it not going to pass? Oh my God. And they're so worried about the deficit. Meanwhile no one will talk about the tax cuts in this case. [00:07:53] I just want to clarify a couple of things. She had that massive lie about how I was going to save $1.7 trillion. That lie is ubiquitous. It happens every single time. It's part of the playbook. Well, it looks like that it's going to cost 5 trillion, but really it's going to save upwards. [00:08:09] Pull something out of here. Oh look. It's going to save a trillion. 2 trillion. 20 trillion. It doesn't matter what number they use because it's not true. Yeah. It's not even it's and it's based on nothing. Okay. Okay. So then in the Washington Post you already see a concession. We quoted the post there, but every other, article has it at around 5 trillion. [00:08:28] I don't know why they magically cut it down to two and one half trillion. Right? That's not real. So they started at 4.5 trillion. Then they added another trillion in tax cuts. Got it up to five and a half. But as I'm seeing these stories and it changes because they're going through committee and it goes through another revision and another revision. [00:08:46] Right. So I'm saying the collection of the stories that I've seen is about 5 trillion, that it adds to the deficit and the debt over ten years. Okay, so that's real. That's the real number. So how does this, end? [00:09:02] In the, in terms of what actually gets passed? Right. Well, at the end, they'll make a big show of doing a concession like. All right, well, we didn't want to do it. I mean, the Republicans love Medicaid, an average guy. We do. Our hearts go out to you. [00:09:18] But we didn't have a choice because of these Freedom Caucus, party folks. We had to cut from the average guy more. Okay, so now your kids won't have Medicaid, and if they have cancer, they'll die. But no big deal. Don't worry. [00:09:33] The rich and the corporations got all of the tax cuts that they wanted. Now, remember that thing we were going to tell you about? Taking away the loopholes and stuff? We're not doing any of that. Okay, so and then none of the press will ask, well, what about the deficit? You guys claimed it was a deficit problem and you didn't make [00:09:50] the deficit situation any better. You cut in. Let's say you cut another 200 billion from Medicaid, which would be devastating to the people who get Medicaid. But then you're left with $4.8 trillion hole in the deficit. So what difference does it make? And it makes no difference. And you can't square that math. [00:10:05] There isn't 5 trillion to cut right. So that's why they play this soap opera every single time. No one tells you how it's going to end. I'm telling you how it's going to end. The only reason why this one might be a little bit different is because things are so crazy now, with Trump proposing tax cuts that aren't just for the rich. [00:10:25] So that's a little bit of a curve ball. And my guess is that one of the concessions at the end to the Freedom Caucus that just won't vote for it, there's nothing we can do is they'll take away one of the tax cuts [00:10:40] for the middle class and keep ones for the rich and for corporations. And nobody's talking about what it was that moved these people over the weekend to, to change their vote to present. Right. And they don't have to. I mean, there could have been promises made on bills in in the future, right? [00:10:58] We'll definitely build that base in your district or we'll definitely open this, you know, this research facility in your district, but this doesn't seem like it's about that. Obviously, this seems like it is really about further cuts. And, you know, one of the one of the dangers here [00:11:14] is that there are moderate Republicans. I love that it's an oxymoron. It's like morning starting the ending the day. Moderate Republicans are are saying that they don't want these. They want a larger cap on salt, which in salt are state and local taxes. [00:11:32] So it's a deduction that you can take on state and local taxes that that goes back to the 2017 Trump tax bill. And so that those deductions are capped at 10,000. This bill has them at 30,000. And there are Republicans in New York and California [00:11:48] who are saying that's not enough. We need to be able to deduct more than 30,000, or we're not going to be on board with this bill too. So there are other changes that are being required of people who are not on the committee, but but rank and file Republicans who are going to end up voting on this when it gets to the floor. [00:12:03] The speaker has a lot of work to do on both ends of the spectrum with with his party, not to mention Moody's cutting the, the, the, the credit rating of the United States from Triple-A to Aa1 because there's too much debt. [00:12:19] So if this creates even more deficit here, it's bad for the markets. The markets are are are struggling now because of that. Yeah. Well yes and no. So yes. So that part is true Michael. But two things can be true at the same time. At the same time, those corporations are like, ooh, [00:12:36] our taxes are going to cut down to 15%. That's literally the bare minimum worldwide, right? There's a worldwide rule that all the countries agree to, or 15% is the bare, bare minimum for corporate for corporate taxes. So the corporations and Wall Street are like, yummy for my tummy. [00:12:55] We're going to steal from the middle class and give it to corporate executives like me. Well, they love that part. So on the other hand, yeah, if you're running a 36, $37 trillion dollar debt and you're going to add 5 trillion on top of that, that's not good news. [00:13:11] Yeah, right. The cost of it increases the cost of doing business. Yes. So now last things are telling you about how full of crap each wing of the Republican Party is. So the so-called moderates, which means just means that they're in purple districts. [00:13:26] It doesn't mean that they're moderate at all. They do the play acting of huffing and puffing about, Medicaid. They mean it on salt because that affects their donor class who will have nice houses. But on Medicaid they're like, oh golly gee, do not cut Medicaid. I am such a moderate. [00:13:42] Wink. And why do I say that? Because it's literally in the news stories they say, although they have signaled already that they are willing to go along with those cuts. So then it's totally fake. 100% fake, right? Now go to the, Freedom Caucus, guys. Oh, we are the true principled conservatives. [00:13:58] - Wow. - Dat dat dat dat dat dat dat. - We always talk about debt and deficits. - You're so full of crap. They're all going to vote for the $5 trillion hole in the debt. And then they're going to say, oh, well, we thought we were going to trickle all over you. And then magically, it would sprout out trillions of extra dollars in revenue. [00:14:15] That's what we've been lying about. I've been saying for the last 50 years, it's never been true. It's empirically not true. It's the worst economic model there is. But, hey, all of our donors want it. Oops. Did I let that slip out? I'm a principled conservative. I'm really worried about debt and deficits. My ass, you are. [00:14:31] I have never seen them care about the debt. Ever, ever, ever. All of those so-called conservative, principled Republicans, all they ever do is vote for those taxes. They're the ones that created this deficit in the first place. They're the ones who created this debt in the first place, with their earlier trillions of dollars in tax cuts for the rich. [00:14:48] I don't know when Republican voters are going to figure out these are the most fake populists you'll ever meet in your life. They're all just sophisticated actors who are just working for the donor class. If any of them meant it, they would obviously vote no on this bill [00:15:04] that is going to create a massive deficit. Massive. But they don't care. Not one of them. Maybe. Massie. Maybe. But I don't even believe him. Okay. Not on this one. Every Republican at the end goes. Of course, sir, the donor class must get all the money. [00:15:21] Corporations must get all the money. I'm a populist, my ass. You are? Well, they're populists are the corporations. So in their minds, they're populist among the corporations, which is their populists. I can't wait for that one of them to make that point. [00:15:36] No, no, no, no, I was real populist. I was so popular among all of the corporate CEOs. They love me. Every time you ring the bell below, an angel gets his wings. Totally not true. But it does keep you updated on our live shows.