The case. For Kamala Harris, the signs is clear as day. If Republicans win come next week, Donald Trump wins comes next week. The signs all along will have been obvious. Okay. All right. That was CNN data analyst Harry Enten back [00:00:17] to back segments one just one day apart. Saying that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have signs of a surge. I feel a little bit like Mr. Enten might be covering his own. You know what on all this, if I'm if he wins, then there was a surge sign. [00:00:36] But if Kamala wins, there was also signs. Don't look at me. I think pollsters are pulling their hair out just like we all are, as we are only a few days away from the November election. And let's just start with his full explainer for why Kamala Harris [00:00:52] could pull off this win. It has to do with her favorability. And the number one sign is that Harris, simply put, is more popular than Donald Trump. Her net favorable rating is higher than Trump. She's at minus two. Trump is at minus seven. I went all the way back since 1956 and looked at the polls. [00:01:10] Does the more popular candidate usually win? The answer is absolutely yes. 16 times the more popular candidate has won only one time, the less popular candidate has won. I will note that was Donald Trump back in 2016. But of course, remember Hillary Clinton was quite unpopular herself. Democrats in special elections, their performances the last two years. [00:01:28] What has happened? We're looking at state legislative and federal special elections. On average, these Democrats have surpassed Joe Biden's 2020 margin by two points by two points. And remember, Joe Biden won. So the fact that these Democrats have been doing better than Joe [00:01:43] Biden's been doing is a good sign. In 2022, these metrics look awfully, awfully similar. In fact, slightly less believe the country was on the right track, slightly more approved of Joe Biden's job, but very similar numbers here. And remember, even though the top metrics were bad for Democrats in 2022, [00:02:00] the white House party did historically well in that midterm. Okay, so that again, Harry Enten from CNN, sort of like a very giving off, like very overeager finance bro vibes right there in all of his his predictions [00:02:16] of Kamala Harris. So showing that Kamala Harris is much more popular, but the one time that the American public did vote for an unpopular candidate, it was Donald Trump. Oopsies. Anyway, but here is his bid and his for Donald Trump surging and why [00:02:33] he thinks maybe it could be Donald Trump. Just 28% of Americans voters think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. And I want you to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay. [00:02:48] What's the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses, its 25%. That 25% looks an awful lot like that 28% up there. In fact, I went back through history. There isn't a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks [00:03:06] the country is going on the right track, in which the incumbent party actually won. They always lose. For Kamala Harris to win, she'd have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden's approval rating is way underwater. Republicans have been registering voters in big, huge numbers they [00:03:22] have been gaining in party registration versus the Democrats in the swing states with party registration. We're talking Arizona. I think it's a five point. They've expanded their lead from five points from where it was back in 2020. How about Nevada? Big Republican registrations there. They like the early vote. How about North Carolina. [00:03:37] Big Republican registration gains. How about Pennsylvania? We spoke about it before a few months ago. Big Republican Party registration gains versus where from where they were four years ago. Okay. Well, that graphic doesn't even have numbers on it. That's just you're just underlining states, my guy. [00:03:53] But that's cool. I this is a hard job, people. So he's saying, yes, there's a a swell of registration of Republican voters, according to, again, Harry Enten. And that's why he thinks maybe Donald Trump could pull this off. Also, because Americans do not think the country is going [00:04:11] in a good direction right now. And generally that doesn't bode well for the incumbent, the incumbent being the Democratic Party, but again, not Biden. So Biden's also not running. So just a little pushback on that, but more whiplash for you. Republican strategist Margaret Hoover, I believe, was on CNN. [00:04:29] And here she is saying that actually, behind the scenes Republican operatives she's speaking to are like, it doesn't look good for us. I have I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually [00:04:44] really do know the political wherewithal that that that the turnout and enthusiasm numbers are not where they need to be. Okay. And then others jump in or like nobody knows. And then here's a communication strategist, Frank Luntz. He's also a pollster who says that. [00:05:01] Yeah. No no no no no no no. Trump has the momentum. Take a look. Biden may have tanked Harris's chances of becoming the president because of his comments about Trump voters being trash, which he has said was a gaffe. [00:05:17] But she's also come out and said, no, no, no, I'm going to give people a seat at the table and not call them the enemy within. Why do you argue that this might be the big issue? Because it reminds me so much of 2016, and I think there are a lot of similarities right now between this campaign and that campaign. [00:05:36] The divisions in the country were significant back then. People didn't think Trump had a chance back then. He's been gaining and gaining the momentum. I don't know who's going to win. I can't call it and nobody should because statistically and polling and [00:05:51] focus groups, it is way too close to call. However, the momentum is clearly in my in what I see, and what I hear is in his favor. I mean, at this point, you know, stick your finger in your mouth and put it up to the wind. [00:06:06] Your guess is as good as anyone. These are pollsters have been doing this for decades who are like, nobody should actually, guess the outcome of this junk. I don't really know who to trust on any of this. I think obviously the numbers are better than just hearing someone say like, [00:06:25] well, I heard people were worried. No, I heard the the dump truck thing was a really good, good move. What do you make of it? And how do you stay calm in these final days? So, well, first of all, I have a battle plan in case either one of them wins [00:06:41] and we're going to do a populist revolt. So come watch us. Hell, yeah. Yeah, it's going to come watch us on Election day. Let's launch that populist revolt together. But now, in terms of who's going to win, you know, I like to think that I'm pretty good at this. [00:06:57] And my answer is, right now we've got 4 or 5 days left before the election. I have no idea. Okay. And so, look, I don't think Harry Enten and other pundits are covering their ass. I think they genuinely are right that it is tied and not just tied. [00:07:14] It's confusing. So what I mean by that is the numbers keep contradicting themselves. Harry did a pretty good job of explaining it there, and those are two big metrics I also look at in elections. You know, who is the country going in the right direction or not? And clearly the Democrats are not winning on that one. [00:07:32] So that's a big problem for Kamala Harris. But then, you know, who do you which candidate do you approve of that is normally very, very telling. And the Democrats are winning on that one. So color me confused. So the one that usually tells you who's going to win is especially in the last ten [00:07:52] years, is who's the change candidate. And on that one they keep flip flopping, right. She's the change candidate. He's the change candidate. She's the change candidate. So the country hasn't made up its mind. It's I've never seen an election like this. It doesn't mean that it's going to be razor thin in the Electoral College. [00:08:09] I'll get back to that in a second. There could still be a perceived blowout, but. But right now, if any pundit is telling you or pollsters telling you, oh, I know for sure who's going to win, they're lying. Because all the professionals, all the guys who are the best at this, including, [00:08:25] yes, begrudgingly, Frank Luntz and Nate Silver are all going, I don't know. I mean, I can give you more numbers. So and more indications. So, for example, as you saw there, Margaret Hoover is saying [00:08:40] the Trump campaign slight panic about their internal polling. Then when you go to Kamala Harris side, they've pulled their ads from North Carolina, which means that they that nine out of ten times, that means they're giving up because their internal polling is showing [00:08:57] that they're going to lose North Carolina. And in Nevada, the local reporters are saying rural turnout, more likely to be Trump, etc., is overwhelming. So now Nevada looks really bad for Democrats. On the other hand, why are the Trump guys panicking [00:09:12] about their internal poll numbers? I, you know, and look, Nevada and North Carolina etc. Are probably not going to settle this. What is very, very likely going to settle this is the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin. And again, every day that I look, there's a new poll with a new leader for a little. [00:09:30] And the reason Luntz, me, Nate Silver, whoever else you want to put in that bucket have all said in the last week or so, week to ten days, it's tied. But our intuition As says Trump, because the momentum is because the polls were headed in that direction [00:09:49] as they're wobbly and wavering there a little bit wobbling towards Trump in the last two weeks or so. But now there's some new polls out going in Harris's direction, and maybe it's because of all the crazy things that Trump and his allies have said recently, [00:10:05] and which goes to the point that I've been making throughout, which is Trump loves to juggle hand grenades. So he dropped a couple of them recently. And by the way, this thing's not over. I mean, as you're going to find out later in today's show, Rudy Giuliani saying the Haitians, you know, should, should have never come out of the jungle. [00:10:22] Tucker Carlson saying he was attacked by demons in the middle of the night. I mean, like, there's no end to their madness. So could they punch themselves enough times in the face to cost themselves a super close election at the end? Yes. So there's no way of knowing. I'll tell you who could make all the difference in a second. [00:10:37] But so far. Are you with me on that, Frannie? - Does that make sense? - I mean, yeah, I agree with you. I just I disagree with Frank Luntz saying that this is exactly like 2016 in terms of underestimating Trump. I don't think that people are underestimating Trump this time around at all. [00:10:54] I think that we are taking Trump incredibly seriously, far more seriously than honestly he takes himself. I think people are very sober about that and what's so upsetting, and we're going to get into maybe why is that? Kamala Harris was clearly the change candidate. [00:11:09] Of course she was a change candidate jumps in when Biden's, you know, two decrepit and genocidal. The you know, keep running. And yeah, of course she's a change candidate, but she's cozied up to some of his worst policies and she hasn't embraced some of his best policies, [00:11:24] and she hasn't really staked out her own, you know, her own vision for a country that is different than Trump. Trump's got a vision. We got mass deportations. You know, we got abolishing the Department of Ed. We've got no trans of gender affirming care. [00:11:40] Like all the kinds of harrowing visions that Donald Trump has and that, you know, that means some of it's not much of a difference considering people can't get abortions in so many states. But a lot of it is like, hey, there's a twisted little vision there. So I just think it was incredible that somehow at this late stage, [00:11:59] you could still imagine that Kamala Harris wouldn't be the change candidate. I still think she is. But also I'm biased towards democracy and stuff. So I think that that is just more of a disappointment on my end. [00:12:15] But I don't think that we are starry eyed about Kamala Harris winning. No one is cavalier about this. And but the other thing that does feel like 2016, Jake, is like, you know, Kamala Harris has sort of said bye bye to the progressive base. It's more of a like, I got this, I don't need you. [00:12:32] Me and Liz Cheney are going to ride out with, you know, the undecided voters and anyone who likes Liz Cheney and the Cheney family still, which is nobody. So there is that vibe that I've gotten from this campaign so far. Yeah, totally. So let me build on that. So look, if you're looking at these two awful candidates, Trump and Biden, [00:12:50] that the country didn't want, like 70% of the country wanted different candidates, then obviously Kamala Harris is a change candidate. But if you're looking to change from the establishment, which most people in the country want, well then she's not really the change candidate because she's much more establishment now. Trump's not. Trump is anti-establishment. [00:13:07] It doesn't really mean he's a real populist. He's just looking out for himself. But that leans in his favor. When you're looking at how does the country feel about change. And so, so what's going to happen at the end and how is this thing going to get decided? Look, first of all, I want you to understand that as close as it is now [00:13:25] and as unclear as it is now, all Trump has to do is get like a one and a half point lead in the blue wall states. And next thing you know, he sweeps all the swing states because that's what that's what would happen. And then it looks like an electoral college blowout. [00:13:41] And then of course, they'll frame that as a mandate, a blowout, etc.. But the Electoral College is so dumb. If you win it by a lot, it doesn't really mean anything. So I mean Biden won by a decent number in terms of the electoral count and certainly in the popular vote. But he actually in reality only won the election by 43,000 votes [00:14:01] in three swing states. So what do you mean by a close election? So he could still be a perceived blowout, and a real blowout would be if Trump won the popular vote. Pause to note how funny that sentence is. Okay, our system is so insane that if a Republican wins the popular vote, [00:14:21] that's considered a blowout. I mean, so we expect a Republican to lose the popular vote in a democracy every time, but still win the Electoral College and the presidency half the time, or more than half the time, so the system is totally screwed. [00:14:36] But that would be that would be a surprising result if he won the popular vote, and it would mean he'd win the Electoral College by a lot. Okay, finally, the key to victory is at this point, this is not a thing that usually makes a difference, even though it's and it's and I love it and I want it to be true, [00:14:51] but it's usually the most overhyped thing. Get out the vote, right. Those campaigns, the door knocking, etc.. Well good news, this is the one campaign where it matters. So go and get out the vote on whichever side you're on, because that's what's going to make a difference almost for sure. [00:15:08] And finally, the undecided voters, not the undecided. Sorry, the unlikely voters, the ones that the polling is not picking up. Did they go towards Trump historically? Yes, definitely. 2016 and even in 2020, in surprising fashion. [00:15:24] But in 2022 and 2023, they went to the Democrats because of abortion. - So who's got more unlikely voters? - And hence. Its look. If Kamala Harris loses, she has no one to blame but herself. I think she ran a very subpar campaign for most of the same reasons [00:15:41] that Francesca just laid out. But if she wins, it will definitely be because it Army of women showed up that people didn't expect and they carried her to victory. Yeah. And I just want to just double down. [00:15:56] There's one more weekend to go and yeah, if you want to knock doors for your candidate, go ahead and do that. Honestly, every little bit does indeed help. And there's some awesome grassroots organizations that are doing good work and they're connected to the communities. They're not just parachuting in, to try and get their vote at the last minute. [00:16:14] Hey, thanks for watching the video. We really appreciate it, guys, and we appreciate it if you become members, because that allows us to be independent, honest, progressive, all the things that you don't get from corporate media and all of that is because of you guys. Hit the join button below and become one of us. Become a young Turk.