Our final national poll of this 2024 race. And what does it show in this stable race? A tied race dead heat among likely voters 47% Harris, 47% Trump. It obviously doesn't get closer to that. [00:00:17] Yeah, multiple polls showing that it is as close as it can possibly be. There you had CNN reporting the final New York Times Siena poll looks very similar. The numbers are technically different, but as you'll see, it's an irrelevant [00:00:33] difference because they've got it at 4848. Now look, you can look at that in a couple of different ways. That's way better than Biden would be doing right now. I don't even want to speculate about where he'd be at. The eight might still be there, but I think there might be a three in front of it. [00:00:50] But regardless, it's also worse than she was doing in that same poll just a couple of weeks ago. She seems to have lost a few points. And importantly, because the vast majority of America's voters are irrelevant to this process. The swing state polls also show a very close race, kind of better in that [00:01:10] she's leading in four out of the seven, including a very narrow, less than one point lead in the critical, particularly for Harris state of Pennsylvania. But all of them are super close. Arizona. He's got a two point lead. I guess that's that's what counts for a great lead these days. [00:01:27] But it is just super, super close, which is, I think, frustrating and difficult to imagine for a lot of people. We've provided as much context as we can throughout this entire process. Obviously, you have the legacy of Joe Biden. [00:01:42] You have the fact that things were very difficult for a number of years across a number of issues. And obviously some of these numbers look much better now. The number of, you know, if you're motivated by immigration, the number of migrants crossing the border is as low as it's been since back into the Trump administration. Inflation is as low as it's been since before Biden came in. [00:02:01] Those things obviously take time to get out there and soak into the public consciousness. And, you know, we've only got another week until the election, so we're probably stuck when it comes to that stuff. But anyway, we have to take stock with the fact that this thing is a coin flip, at least going by the polls. [00:02:17] And we can bring up a graphic as we discuss this that shows the gap between them on some of the top issues that people cite that will motivate their vote. But, Jake, what do you what do you make of the polls one week out? Okay, so, top line is disaster. But when you dive into the numbers, it gets a lot more complicated. [00:02:35] And there's a little bit of hope in those numbers. So the reason top line is a disaster is because, as I've told you a hundred times, Biden barely won the Electoral College when he had a four and a half point lead in the popular vote. And if you're tied in the popular vote nationally, [00:02:52] oh, boy, that is not a good sign. Okay, that's a very, very bad sign. But. But why? Because you win a lot more in California and New York and other blue states. And then you got to. And then you worry that that means that you're not picking up enough [00:03:07] in the swing states, right? But in this case, it's possible that they lost some votes in California and New York. The Democrats did because of some overreach on crime, immigration, etc.. So it's possible that you don't need four and a half votes, because when you look at the swing states, that's the only thing that matters. [00:03:24] And they're just close to tied as you can be right now. Remember, that's just one poll. Now, the other day I did a video about who's going to win, and I told you six out of the last seven polls in Michigan has Trump winning. The seventh was tied. I forgot to come back and tell you. But the last one, Quinnipiac, a very legitimate poll, [00:03:41] had Harris winning by four. So impossible to tell. Impossible. And now Trump's got a bunch of things going in his direction. The Democrats are very worried. John's going to tell you about that in a second. But I want to give you two giant rays of hope. I don't want you to get overly hopeful because my intuition says Trump, for when [00:04:00] you take in all of the different numbers. But these are very hopeful. So when you're looking at the people who are already mailing their votes in, are they coming from registered Democrats or registered Republicans? Now, Democrats are supposed to have a big lead in mail in, [00:04:17] and we're getting conflicting information. We're getting information from Nevada from the top reporter there, John Ralston, saying, oh boy, tons of rural votes that are more Republican, more Trump. And he's saying that Nevada is in a lot of trouble for Kamala Harris. Okay, so Trump more likely to win there. [00:04:32] We got a report yesterday Miami-Dade more Republicans have sent in votes than Democrats. That's a Democratic county. Okay. Now Florida is not in play, but we're talking about the Senate. Yeah, there's a Senate is relevant. Now you got some Democrats running like ads where they're kind of cozying [00:04:49] up to Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania. Bob Casey is now losing the Democratic senator. Those are all bad. But here's the good news. So so far nationally. And this is why it's such a mystery. Kamala Harris, meaning democratic male. Now some Democrats might vote Republican, etc. [00:05:05] You don't know how they actually voted, but it gives you a good enough sense. She's leading so far in Mail-In votes 59 to 40. That's a big lead. That's a 19 point lead. But then some folks say, yeah, but all Trump has to do is get 33% of the mail in vote. [00:05:20] But that's the Republican position. I don't know that that's true at all. But that's what Republicans are saying. So. And then finally, this is actually maybe even better news for Kamala Harris. About 15% of voters are still undecided, according to the New York Times poll, which is a giant number. I'm shocked that it's that large. I don't quite believe it. [00:05:38] It doesn't match other polls. But anyway, that's good. You want them undecided, especially when you find out that group is leaning 4232 in favor of Kamala Harris. If she has a ten point lead with undecided voters and 15% of voters are undecided, [00:05:55] that's great news for Kamala Harris. I'm a little skeptical about that, based on all the other polling that I've seen. But. So if I didn't see those two facts that I just shared with you, the lead in the mail in vote and leading with undecided voters, I'd be [00:06:10] close to calling the election right. So but that still gives me a ray of hope that Kamala Harris can win this thing. And the polling is so all over the place that you know how much I love polling and I believe in polling, but when they're going like this, [00:06:26] I don't know what to believe. Right. So that's the crazy situation we find ourselves in was what do you think? It's been about six weeks of this of this being a dead heat. At no point pretty much since Kamala got in the race, [00:06:42] she kind of narrowed it to, like, 47%. Damn near, you know, automatically. And then, you know, there's times where she's inched forward and in times where she's inched backwards in the race, and now we're just basically like, [00:06:57] this thing is dead. Even all indications are showing that this is going to be the closest election ever, or at least in our lifetimes. And, yeah, I'm not sure what anybody could do to reverse this trend. It feels like we're going to be waiting for probably a week or so after, [00:07:18] Election Day to tally all of these votes. I would just encourage the viewers to, to buckle up. Be patient. Don't panic. Don't listen to anybody who's telling you they know with certainty that Trump is going to win, or they know the certainty that Kamala's got this in the bag. [00:07:37] We're in for a long, excruciating close, election here, folks. Yeah. There is one possible exception to that, though, was, because if he's really leading in Pennsylvania and in this poll, [00:07:52] he wasn't, Kamala Harris was leading by a point in other polls he is leading in Pennsylvania. It could be over in an hour. Like if he wins Pennsylvania, it's over. Like, yeah, maybe she wins North Carolina. But Democrats have almost given up on North Carolina. So that's your blue wall. [00:08:08] She's got to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin if he wins Pennsylvania. All of the hoopla about what about the violence. What about weeks long this and all that. No it could be over before, you know, it hit you. So but that's not at all guaranteed. And there's a billion things like, I don't know, I get it, [00:08:27] and there's tons of anecdotes, not tons. There's some anecdotal evidence that there are secret Kamala voters. And remember, there were secret women voters, meaning unlikely voters. They're not actually secret. They're not right. It just means that they're unlikely voters not showing up in the polling [00:08:42] that did show up in 2022 and in special elections for 2023, and made a difference for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. So nothing is certain. But there are. - The ballot measures. - Yeah. And so maybe the secret Kamala voters, pull out a win for her. But if anyone but if one side is going to do a landslide, [00:08:59] it's looking more likely that it's Trump. Yeah. I just want to briefly mention before we close out this topic, we've already begun. Normally you'd see this like in the aftermath of an election, but it's because it's the Democrats and they always do this. They're already starting to like fight amongst themselves about who made or lose, [00:09:18] even though she hasn't lost yet. I think they like, rather than focusing their attention on stopping her from losing, they're just backstabbing each other. And so Axios has this report of a bunch of top Democrats, including top Democrats in the Harris campaign, that seem to believe that this thing is lost again. [00:09:35] The polls are 5050, but, there, one top Democratic official texted another saying going down question mark, which is such a strange way to signal your surrender. But anyway, Democrats apparently fear she's made too many different cases [00:09:52] against Trump and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters who crave to know more. She is who she is, one longtime Democratic strategist said. - Let's hope it's enough. - I don't know who she is. I mean, I don't know that anybody knows who she is. But anyways, keep going. Democrats say Harris faces a maddening double standard as Trump threatens to jail [00:10:10] adversaries and strip broadcast licenses. Van Jones says he gets to be lawless. She has to be flawless. That's fair. That's funny. Also, it's well worded. Yeah, but anyway, And apparently in private conversations to Axios reporters, top Republicans seem shockingly confident. [00:10:27] - So that's fun. - Yeah. Last thing I'll say is, normally both sides are confident. And one side I always look. Good luck guys. Okay. And and, you know, we've been pretty spot on with stuff like that. [00:10:43] And, in this case, for a long time, both sides were enormously confident. Weirdly confident, like over the top, confident. One side all of a sudden is not. And remember they also have internal polls that we don't have. [00:11:00] So those I don't know what those internal polls are showing, but on Sunday, on October 20th, I got the same feeling of doom that I got the weekend before the 2016 election. And, you know, is that anything? It might be absolutely nothing, right? [00:11:18] But it's not just a feeling of like coming out of the blue. No, it's an after looking at all of these numbers, all the data, all the anecdotes and historically, what is more likely to, to win, and, and but it did manifest itself as this feeling of doom [00:11:34] that Trump was going to win and we were going to have four more years. So, look, it's unlikely that Kamala Harris will blow him out unless she's got this massive, unlikely voter base, which again did happen recently. So it's not impossible, but it's either going to be super close or, you know, [00:11:52] he might even win the popular vote. They're tied nationally and that is astounding. But if he but if he doesn't the Electoral college, all you got to do is win by a little bit and it looks like a blowout. So he could come in there and say mandate. And I just guys, it is time to grab your seatbelts. [00:12:09] You might not need them, but you should put them on. And I just. Want to quickly say, first of all, I know that like if you join us for Election Day and if Trump wins, we're going to respond. The rights can be like they they never saw it coming. And obviously we've been saying for literally weeks that he could win. I mean, we've been saying for like two years that he could win. [00:12:25] So but they're going to say whatever they're going to say, by the way, they all reject that. There's literally any possibility that Trump could lose. So but anyway, and let's also just acknowledge like it's everybody just thinks it can't happen here. Surely we're too enlightened to fall to an arrogant, blowhard, clownish demagogue. [00:12:45] No, I mean, other countries have fallen. Other countries in difficult economic times have had someone who cares more about themselves than the national welfare. And they've come in and they've given people, you know, an easy scapegoat of scary migrants from El Salvador and the Congo or whatever, [00:13:03] and work some up into a frenzy, a two year hate and dispatches them and gives them this. This mythical idea of prior national strength like this has worked in other places. There's a reason that demagogues do what they do, and so we can't be too shocked. [00:13:19] Obviously, it's going to be a dark time and we're going to need each other to get through it. But yeah, hopefully it won't come to that. Yeah. And obviously check out Election Day right here on The Young Turks starts at noon eastern goes to whole day, whole night. And, and if you can't support our election [email protected] slash 2024. [00:13:36] Thanks for watching The Young Turks. Really appreciate it. Another way to show support is through YouTube memberships. You'll get to interact with us more. There's live chat emojis badges. 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