Sep 9, 2024
The State of The Presidential Race Just Took A Turn
Dems Become A GIDDY MESS After Liz, Dick Cheney Endorse Kamala Harris | The State of The Presidential Race Just Took A Turn | Mark Cuban REVEALS PRIVATE Conversations With Harris | The State of The Presidential Race Just Took A Turn
- 13 minutes
The New York Times
Siena College poll that just came out
spells some trouble for Kamala Harris,
as it finds that her opponent,
Donald Trump, is ahead nationally.
Now, look, we all knew that there was
going to be a bit of a honeymoon period
[00:00:15]
with Kamala Harris
being the new Democratic nominee.
It does appear that some of that has
faded, and it does appear that some of
that is being reflected in this polling.
Now, when it comes to national polling,
keep in mind that the Democrat
would have to win by five points
in order to win the Electoral College.
[00:00:33]
But in this case, with this one poll,
you see that Kamala Harris is, not ahead.
Okay.
So Donald Trump is ahead 48%
to Kamala Harris, 47%.
I should note that The New York Times
has a margin of error
[00:00:51]
of plus or minus three points.
And we should also take a look at how
this particular poll compares to others.
Right.
Because it's not just about one poll.
One poll could be an outlier.
But let's look at the average of polling.
Let's see what the other polls say.
So luckily, the New York Times
provided that information for us.
[00:01:09]
And as you can see here,
the average of polls shows Harris
up nationally by two points.
It's still not enough to win the Electoral
College, but it is obviously better
than the New York Times poll
showing Trump winning by a few points.
[00:01:25]
Now, the Ipsos poll is the most Harris
friendly with her leading by six points,
but that's the only one that shows her
with a big enough lead.
All of the others have Harris
leading by just one point.
Making matters worse, we're about to get
into the details about how they're
[00:01:40]
performing in the swing states.
And remember, at the end of the day,
the election is decided
by these battleground states.
Before we get to that, Jake. Thoughts?
- Yeah.
- Hey, don't scroll away.
Come back, come back.
Because before the video continues,
we just want to urge you
to lend your support to TYT.
[00:01:57]
You power our honest reporting.
You do it at tight.com/team
and we love you for it.
First thing is is it real.
So they did oversample
Republicans a little bit.
So it might be a little bit worse in
this New York Times poll than the average.
[00:02:14]
Now, it might be
it is worse than the average.
So keep that in mind.
Having said that, it's definitely real.
Why is it real overall?
Because other polls are
showing deterioration
in the swing states for Kamala Harris.
So when you have all those polls
headed in the same direction,
[00:02:30]
that's when you know it's real.
So you can tell yourself
pretty little eyes
on both Republicans and Democrats do it.
Whenever you're down in the polls.
You say the polls aren't real.
And we have shown you now endless times
where both sides have done it,
depending on whether they were
losing or winning in the polls.
But it's really important
that you be honest with yourself.
[00:02:46]
Otherwise you can't course correct
and then you'll lose.
So after we show you the swing state
problems, I want to come back and explain
to you why Kamala Harris surged.
There's very clear reasons why
and why she's now losing that momentum.
I think there's also equally clear reasons
why she's losing the momentum.
[00:03:04]
So the swing states do spell a little bit
of trouble for Kamala Harris as well.
And there is a statistical tie, according
to the New York Times Siena College
polling here in the following states,
there's Arizona, Georgia,
Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina,
[00:03:21]
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
And so in all of those states,
it is a statistical tie.
So in some of them,
they're completely tied.
In some of these states,
Trump might lead by one point.
In others Harris might lead by one point.
But at the end of the day,
when you consider the margin of error for
[00:03:39]
this poll, they are in a statistical tie.
Now, this is the first major poll
showing Kamala slipping a little in
the polls since she became the nominee
following Biden dropping out.
And this means that the stakes
are obviously high for Kamala Harris
[00:03:55]
in the presidential debate
that will take place this week.
So, look, we should talk also about what
the voters are saying, what the voters
told pollsters about how they're feeling
about the two different candidates.
So the survey found that 28%
of likely voters say that they felt they
[00:04:13]
needed to know more about Kamala Harris,
while only 9% said that they needed
to know more about Trump.
So this could actually be
a silver lining for Harris, or at least an
opportunity for growth for Harris,
because most voters feel
that they already know enough about Trump.
[00:04:30]
So they've made up their minds
about Donald Trump.
Whereas, you know,
Harris could make some leeway with voters.
You know, the 28% who feel
like they don't know enough about her
to make a decision yet.
So that's good news, right?
A lot of people out there
who haven't made up their minds yet
[00:04:45]
are still open minded to Harris,
and she could definitely persuade them.
And that's why I think that this polling
is important for her to take seriously.
Now, 5% of likely voters surveyed
said that they're undecided.
In addition to that, 28%, by the way,
who say that they don't know enough
[00:05:01]
about Harris, 5% of likely voters surveyed
said that they're undecided and did not
lean toward either major party candidate.
And those are really the people
who are going to decide the election
at the end of the day.
Harris held on to some of the gains
that she made with key groups
[00:05:18]
that Biden was slipping with, including
women, young voters and Latino voters.
However, and this is really interesting,
even Kamala Harris is now struggling
to build a solid lead with Latino voters.
It appears that Donald Trump has made
some significant gains gains with Latinos.
[00:05:36]
Now, the respondents also say that they
trust Trump more on specific issues
like the economy and immigration,
whereas voters trust Harris.
More on topics like saving
our democracy and abortion.
[00:05:52]
And I do want to give you some quotes as
well. 47% of likely voters viewed Harris
as too liberal, compared with 32% who say
that Trump is too conservative.
More than 60% of likely voters said
the next president should represent a
[00:06:07]
major change from Biden, but only 25% said
that vice president or the vice president,
meaning Kamala Harris represented
that change, while 53% said that Trump,
the former president, did.
Yeah, that's the key one.
So I want to focus on that.
So why did Kamala Harris
surge in the beginning?
[00:06:25]
Number one, she looked like the change
candidate all of a sudden out of nowhere,
because everybody was sick
of Biden and Trump and they couldn't wait
for anyone that wasn't Biden or Trump.
Kamala Harris comes in
and they're like, great change, okay?
And she surges. So that's point one.
Then she picked Tim Walz.
And Tim Walz is not a standard politician.
[00:06:44]
He's more of a folksy regular guy
and more of a populist, progressive, etc.
In an economic way that actually delivered
for the average voter in Minnesota.
So they're like, okay, that's good.
That's the second reason.
Then she comes up with an economically
populist agenda and people like it.
[00:07:02]
They're like, oh, okay, they're going to
she's going to check the big corporations
that are price gouging us.
She's going to do something about housing
prices that are out of control.
So boom, she surges And whereas Biden
was down by about 5 in 1 of the polls,
he's down by eight.
[00:07:17]
She takes the lead and goes all the way
up to up three and a half points.
Now she's been losing
that lead ever since.
So what changed? A couple of things.
Number one they stopped doing all media.
Oh that's so dumb.
That's millions and eventually hundreds
of millions of dollars in free media.
[00:07:35]
Why don't you go and make your case?
And if you say no,
both Harris and Walz are so incompetent
that if they are interviewed,
they can't make their own case.
Well, then you're sending
a giant message of weakness,
and then you're forcing all of the media
to talk about how you won't talk to them
[00:07:55]
because they get obsessed with that.
Right? And they're right to.
Then you need to be challenged
and questioned if you're going to be
president of the United States.
So now you've got a giant negative story
just sitting there for no reason,
self-inflicted harm.
It's insanity.
Right. And then what did you do now?
[00:08:12]
CNBC anchors start yelling at you.
We've been covering
that on the show the last couple of weeks.
She starts retracting
some of her our policies.
Disaster. Now we're really.
What are you doing?
And finally, on the issue of change,
the most important issue there
[00:08:28]
is are you if you're the change candidate,
you're going to win.
If you're the status quo candidate,
you're going to lose.
So, Anna, just read you 60% of voters,
it's actually 61, of likely voters.
The next said the next president
should represent
[00:08:44]
a major change from Biden right now.
Let me read you the devastating details
on how where Kamala and Trump lie on that.
So this is still from the New York Times.
Obviously, only 40% of likely voters
said Miss Harris represented change, while
[00:08:59]
55% said she represented more of the same.
That's devastating.
Mr. Trump, in contrast,
was seen as representing change
by 61% of voters, while only 34% said
he was more of the same.
[00:09:14]
He's got a huge advantage now
as the change candidate,
so she has to take that mantle,
but I'm not sure she realizes it
because in Democratic Party circles,
they think the status quo is great
if you're the defender of the status quo.
[00:09:32]
America is not going to vote for you.
You had it.
You had it as the change candidate
for that month.
You've got to go back to that
and win that mantle.
If Trump is seen as the change candidate.
He's going to win this election.
Final thing I'll leave you with I thought
that this quote was really interesting.
[00:09:50]
It's from a 31 year old vaccine scientist
in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
This is an individual who has already
committed to voting for Kamala Harris.
His name is Matthew Tucker, but he says
this in regard to the Democratic Party
and whether he feels confident
that Kamala Harris is going to respond
[00:10:10]
or react to the immigration appropriately.
He says it's not like I'd lay it all on
her, meaning the problems at the border,
but I'm not sure that I heard enough
about her trying to deal with that.
And I would like to hear more
from Democrats or Republicans on more
[00:10:26]
creative solutions to that problem,
rather than just putting up walls.
Now, again, this is a Democratic voter
who's already committed
to voting for Kamala Harris.
It's not about Democrats
who are, you know, Partizans.
And they're going to vote
for the Democrat no matter what.
At the end of the day, it comes down
to those independent swing voters
[00:10:45]
who might agree with him on that issue,
and they want to see more
from Kamala Harris in regard to what her
solutions are, not just on immigration,
but other issues as well.
And so that kind of goes
to your point, Jake.
It's important for her
to do more of these interviews and
to differentiate herself from Joe Biden.
[00:11:01]
And I know that that's a difficult thing
to do because she doesn't want
to disrespect Biden.
Who cares? Disrespect him?
I know.
- I mean.
- Are you crazy?
You're worried about this.
Joe Biden is an anchor
tied around her legs, and you're worried,
oh, I might be impolite to him.
Who cares when the goddamn election?
[00:11:17]
So, look, guys, the debate tomorrow night,
obviously, we're going to cover.
You know, we always cover it.
We're going to give you analysis,
but you could actually watch it.
Also on tight.com/debate.
We're going to embed the debate
and we're going to show you
pre and post debate analysis.
Now the reason why I mentioned
that is because it's critical.
[00:11:34]
And she's got to turn around.
And I don't know
if she's gotten the message.
And so last point here is
the other thing that people want
is strength from their leaders.
So when you're hiding from the press,
you look weak.
And when you're flip flopping
on your positions, you look weak.
[00:11:52]
Now Trump does it,
but he does it in a weird aggro way
where he'll say one thing and like,
oh, I definitely won the election.
Terrible.
And then he'd go do an interview
and be like, I lost the election.
I won the election.
He'll say two different things,
but he'll say both of them while screaming
[00:12:08]
and you might say,
oh, he's unhinged and crazy, etc.
But at least he has the outward appearance
to some voters of being strong.
He isn't, but he has that appearance
when you're like,
oh, I don't want to get interviewed.
Oh my God, that looks so weak.
You need to go out there
and make your case say,
[00:12:24]
this is why I'm going to deliver.
This is what I'm going to do for you
If you're just sitting there
doing canned speeches for rallies
that you're not going to win this race.
You know what the problem is, guys?
This is she kept the Biden campaign team
and they're an anchor wrapped around
the entire Democratic Party.
[00:12:44]
And it's their dumbass strategy.
And this is sourced.
I've read it now in several articles.
The old Biden team is like,
don't talk to the press.
The press might be slightly mean to you.
Hide from them for the entire campaign.
All right.
[00:13:00]
Well, if you listen to that,
it's a guaranteed loss.
Thanks for watching The Young Turks
really appreciate it.
Another way to show support
is through YouTube memberships.
You'll get to interact with us more.
There's live chat emojis, badges.
You've got emojis of me
Anna John Jr. So those are super fun.
[00:13:19]
But you also get playback
of our exclusive member only shows
and specials right after they air So all
of that, all you got to do is click that
join button right underneath the video.
Thank you.
Now Playing (Clips)
Episode
Podcast
The Young Turks: September 9, 2024
Hosts: Cenk UygurAna Kasparian
- 16 minutes
- 12 minutes
- 21 minutes
- 9 minutes
- 13 minutes
- 13 minutes
- 8 minutes
- 9 minutes