For months and months, I have been asking for someone, anyone to be charged over the insider trading that is obviously going on with these prediction markets that let you just bet on oh civilians being bombed or whatever. And unfortunately, I should have been more specific [00:00:15] because the finger of the monkey's paw has curled and we have someone being charged, but it's not what I meant. So federal investigators said that Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who is a soldier. was involved in the Maduro mission, bet more than $33,000 on the prediction market polymarket [00:00:33] just days before President Donald Trump announced Maduro's capture. Van Dyke was indicted on charges that included unlawful use of confidential information for personal gain, theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, and wire fraud. So he was one of the soldiers involved in Maduro's capture. Now, ah one positive thing coming out of this is we now know what [00:00:53] you could charge people for when they do this. So all those Trump aides and cabinet secretaries and Donald Trump and Barron, these are the charges that you should be facing soon. But anyway, I have complicated thoughts about this. But first, we're gonna go to Donald Trump who is [00:01:08] not physically capable of complicated thoughts. Here's what he had to say. Is he betting that they would get him or they wouldn't get him? It sounds like he was betting [00:01:25] on his removal from office, that Maduro would be removed. That's interesting. That's like Pete Rose betting on his own team. It's a little like Pete Rose. Pete Rose, he kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own team. Now if he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team. I'll look into it. Yeah, no, I bet he's looking [00:01:46] into it. I bet he's reading briefs, I bet he's talking to people. So here's the background. uh He knows that he, his family, everyone in that room around him is doing this exact same thing. That's why it's a goddamn joke to him and he can make his little Pete Rose jokes or whatever. And uh this guy will, I guess, go down. I guess be fined, maybe go to jail, [00:02:08] because he's not in the cabinet. He's just a regular person. It's easy to take him down. Anyway, a reporter double down and then we'll give you our thoughts. And he said Trump, well, know, the whole world unfortunately has become somewhat of a casino. I was never much in favor of it as a guy who started and bankrupted multiple casinos. He's never, I don't like [00:02:28] it conceptually, but it is what it is. No, I think that I'm not happier than any of that stuff. But they have all these different sites. They have predictive markets, they're prediction markets. It's a crazy world. It's a much different world than it was. And what are you gonna do? And that is famously Donald Trump when there's something in the world that he doesn't like. [00:02:44] He just shrugs his shoulders. But for this, he does. And by the way, when all these people are making all this money betting on stuff minutes before Donald Trump tweets, my anger is with the people doing the betting. But also, how did they know that Donald Trump was about to [00:03:01] tweet? Donald Trump is implicated in this, obviously. Now, there are some who are saying this soldier should not go to jail. Representative Ana Paulina Luna says that he should be pardoned. And since Donald Trump doesn't want to set a precedent that you can go to jail for gaming these prediction markets with insider information, and it's a soldier, I have no doubt that he [00:03:18] will actually pardon him. But what about the $1 billion of bets, for instance, perfectly timed bets on the Iran war? Who are all of those people, by the way? And so I don't expect that they're going to take them down. And honestly, I kind of think maybe this is a little bit [00:03:35] like the Pete Rose thing. But if he's involved in the mission, he bets they're gonna do it. At least that gives him more incentive to do it well, I suppose. Now, obviously, I don't want them to be betting. I don't think that any of this is good. And I would go way further. I don't want you to just lock up soldiers. I don't want you to just lock up cabin aides. [00:03:52] I want you to outlaw these sites entirely because they should not exist. And under our law, they should not be able to exist. That's what I would do. But Brett, what do you make of this? Now, I think the sites encompass a lot of different things that might happen. I'm a progressive. [00:04:13] The reason I'm progressive is it makes sense to basically ground rules against corruption, ground rules against treating people bad. feel like casinos by and large, if the world is a casino, the casinos have ground rules where it's supposed to be a fair game. If you have [00:04:31] insider knowledge of something that's supposed to be based on probability, i.e. what are the chances of this happening? But you have eliminated the chance element and brought it down to a certainty. You should not be able to make those bets, outlaw those bets. But if I can bet [00:04:52] on a sports game, as long as someone isn't tanking, then we get pissed off when people tank. We get pissed off when the refs- rig the game. But I'm not mad at casinos for existing [00:05:07] when it is actually us betting on it. I choose not to do it. It makes me totally nervous. I hate gambling. I only like gambling in the sense of if I sit down at a slot machine and spend $4 very slowly and I get a free drink, well, I just beat the house. But and I'll sit [00:05:26] there and I'll, yeah, anyways, but I just don't think that you can. throw the baby out with the bath water. It's fine to have these conceptually. I can't back down on that. And Trump is saying, I don't think there should be casinos. I don't think it should be a casino. Maybe when you [00:05:45] say conceptually, you mean under certain laws. They are breaking the law. They're obviously breaking the law in allowing US based people to do sports betting in states that they're legally barred from doing that. Yeah. But like, this is my whole thing with like uh weed was [00:06:02] illegal. I don't think it's bad if people smoke it in their states where it's illegal. But I understand your argument that if it's illegal, you should not be allowed to do it. It is weird that they allowed to do it, but then my weed argument goes out the window. But I understand [00:06:19] like- there are victims here. There are victims in this scenario where people were betting because they were just like, what are the chances? And if they can get taken to the cleaners, because that money comes from other folks that made the bets, essentially, at least the probabilities [00:06:37] are derived from people betting based on chance, as influenced by the house. But if it's rigged, it's rigged and that's bad and we should get rid of it, only on that account. The last thing I think that I will say on this is, because we're way over. uh So all of this is seemingly [00:06:58] anonymous. Basically, everybody's using a VPN to do this if you're in America. He routed the money through cryptocurrency. So yeah, all of that stuff, fix that stuff. How was he caught? We've been talking about these over and over and over again, that people are doing [00:07:15] all these things, and they're clearly White House insiders. So they can identify people if they want to, as long as they're just some soldier with some cash to burn or whatever. Not if it's like Baron. Also the stock act is on the books where you can stop trading [00:07:34] on congressional knowledge and they still are trading on congressional knowledge. No one's ever been prosecuted under the stock act. Like that, yeah. rid of the corrupt bastards, but- Yes. I do need to bet on whether the horse will win. Whether there will be a six seven joke [00:07:53] in the Devil Wears Prada 2, I need to bet my life safe. Right, those things where you could know the answer. Yeah. And there's no way to track whether you're the kind of person who would know that.