China was taking advantage of us. And look at where we are. We finally have someone in the white House saying enough is enough. And it happens to be the guy who authored the Art of the deal. I'm going to peg my money on the guy authoring the Art of the deal. And to mark Levin's point, he said, maybe this will be a great reset. [00:00:18] Like when we took down the Soviet Union during the Reagan years, and we did it economically. Maybe to mark Levin's point, that is what Donald Trump is doing economically with China. I'm going to put my money on the Art of the deal guy. Or maybe Mark Levin's a moron who doesn't know what he's talking about, [00:00:33] and he and she are both propagandists and will never say what they truly believe. She would have you believe that she's putting her money on the Art of the deal guy. Bear in mind it's not as much money as it was a week ago, though, even after he retreated flailing from his biggest tariffs. [00:00:49] Everybody's accounts are still massively, massively down. And Kayleigh McEnany knows that as well as everyone does. By the way, we found out, between yesterday and today that China is now jacking up their tariffs on our goods to 125%, [00:01:05] which is a thing that I guess you can do. It's not quite as high as ours on theirs. We're at 145% because of something to do with fentanyl. And I have to say that while I've mostly been on board with the tariff thing, you know, 10%, 30%, 80%, 145 seems too high. [00:01:24] I think I could see 101 45 seems like a lot. I think he's gone too far. But anyway, you know what else is going really far? The Chinese Finance Ministry spokesman, in his response to these announcements, he says the US alternately raising abnormally high, [00:01:41] abnormally high tariffs on China, has become a numbers game which has no practical economic significance and will become a joke in the history of the world economy. With tariff rates at the current level, there is no longer a market for US goods imported into China, adding that if the US government [00:01:57] continues to increase tariffs on China. Beijing will ignore because realistically, at the end of the day, once you've gotten to 125%, what's the difference if you go to one, 50 or 200? People aren't buying that stuff anymore. You just can't. And this is not like both. [00:02:13] We both have super high levels, but that doesn't mean we're both going to be hurt equally. Because if you look at this chart, we import a lot more products from China than they do from us. So look, the damage to our businesses hoping to sell to China won't be quite as much, I guess, as it will be for them, [00:02:30] although we will sell less products, but our consumers will pay a much bigger price because of how much more reliant we are on their exports we import. Or at least I should say we used to import $440 billion. God only knows what that will be. [00:02:46] And with these new jacking up of both the tariffs on both sides, the stock market was hit even more. And I didn't know that that was possible. But we've been hit yet again. And we'll get to more of Carolyn Leave it trying to explain this away. And so more of the really scary numbers sort of underlying all of this. [00:03:03] - But what do you make of it? - Yeah. And I have a super fun big prediction coming up in a little bit. And except it's not super fun. It's fairly dire. Okay. You did predict, by the way, last Friday, anyone who believes that the tariffs are going to remain at that level, he said that they're crazy [00:03:19] if they think they're going to remain. Yeah. You know, I actually think I haven't bragged about it enough. Okay. And so we should really remedy that. But so you heard me, John. Thanks for pointing that out. You heard me say it on this show. I said it on Piers Morgan pretty spectacularly. Kari Lake apparently owes me an apology. That's awesome. [00:03:36] He said on Newsnation. On every show I went on, I said, look, I'm telling you right now, it's as bold a prediction as you'll get. Meaning, I am positive. And if I'm wrong, you come back and you flail me for this, that these tariffs won't last. And they didn't last. So. And because there's certain economic laws that are invaluable. [00:03:56] You can't You can say like, oh yeah, I'm going to bully you. Can you bully Republican politicians? Sure. Can you bully Democrats? Of course. Right. But can you bully the bond market? It turns out no you can't. Right. And so look, guys, you know what a clown Trump is because he [00:04:13] flip flopped and got nothing for it. So this talk of art of the deal is one of our members yesterday said the art of the deal, is like come on now. No, look, any right winger at this point, whether they're in media or otherwise, like going around pretending that Trump meant to do all this, [00:04:31] he meant to put catastrophic tariffs, which crashed both the stock market and the bond market at the same time, which previously was thought unimaginable. They usually go opposite each other. But he managed to somehow miraculously crash both of them. And then, in a panic, he pulls out of all those tariffs except to China, [00:04:49] and he gets nothing in return. And that was his plan. Well, if that's his plan, then the Russia Russia folks are correct. He's actually trying to destroy the country from within and works for Saudi Arabia or Putin or whoever else. But that's not there was no plan. He's an idiot. [00:05:05] There, I explained it, which is going to lead to my prediction in a second, but was. I tend to echo your sentiments there. Look, I try to say this as much as possible, talking about this tariff stuff. Tariffs don't have an innately positive or negative, sort of quality. [00:05:26] It's a tool that you will use for a specific ends. And what the Trump administration is absolutely never done besides vaguely bringing back manufacturing jobs to the US, which manufacturing jobs we don't know. [00:05:42] They've never had a stated goal for the tariffs. Now, if it was like, all right, we want I don't know. We want to make chips here or we want to make, you know, some of the high tech technology here. All right. Cool. Let's make some more factories out here. Here's the problem with that. [00:05:58] We even had tariffs on the raw materials that it would take to build these new factories. Now it's like, oh, the plan was always to isolate China. Okay, so why did we put tariffs on the rest of the world as well? If the ideas that we're going to collaborate with them [00:06:13] to put China in a corner. There's no plan. There's no there there. And and I mean, in a dead giveaway where, the mcilhaney, lady sounds like a complete idiot is Trump came out on Wednesday and he said, yo, people were getting, yippy. [00:06:31] Not a word I think he was meant to say. Like they had the yips. They were getting nervous, people were getting yippy. So he pulled it back. That's it. He literally said it in plain English. It's not art of the deal. It's not grand plan. It's. I changed it because the bond markets were crashing. [00:06:46] Yeah. Now it's a it's a great point. I want to kind of add on to both of you. But first let's get a little bit more from the press secretary. Trust in President Trump. He knows what he's doing. This is a proven economic formula. What is he asking of Americans at this time? He talked about transition costs transition problems. [00:07:01] Is he asking something specific for Americans to do? No. I think the president is is asking for Americans trust in Trump, as I just said, trust in his economic agenda, in formula. It's a proven formula that works. I mean, everything's down. Literally everything. [00:07:17] The bonds are down, the stock market's still down and prices are surging. I guess it's a proven formula. She didn't say it was a good formula. She just said it was proven. So she's actually being honest for once. But she says to trust. Okay. Well then I'll trust him that that it wasn't really a plan because he [00:07:32] said he came up with it on Wednesday. So so clearly it wasn't a plan. But but by the way, that's not even true. That's not even true because I'm damn sure not going to trust her. Because on Monday, when the leaks were coming out and saying that they're planning a 90 day pause, what did she say? She said fake news. She said, this is why you're discredited. [00:07:50] And then two days later, they paused it for 90 days. So I'm not gonna trust Trump. I'm not gonna trust her. And by the way, some people might come out of this reversal and be like, okay, good. We went in a crazy direction and now we've dialed it back and I guess we're in the same spot, except we're in basically every way in a worse spot than we were. [00:08:07] First of all, the stock market is not even close to where it was before he started adding on the extra tariffs. We're still down. We're still seeing the bond sell off. We're going to get to some of the other fundamental numbers having to do with consumer confidence and uncertainty and all that, all that's worse. And maybe most importantly for Donald Trump, who would have you believe, [00:08:24] hey, I prove now that I can like, throw my fists around. Okay. And now they're coming to the to the table to negotiate. But what have you really done? He would imply he's now demonstrated his power. I would say he's given up all of the theoretical, like chaos, leverage he had. [00:08:39] Because in the past he might have said, come to the table, and if you don't, I'll put these massive tariffs on you. But now the whole world knows that if he does that, all they have to do is wait a week and then he'll get the yips and then he'll back off. He doesn't have even the stupid wild card leverage that he had before. [00:08:57] And what if. And we've all paid for that. I don't know. I mean, obviously, most Americans aren't in an economic position where they can necessarily own stock. But for those of you who do, I guarantee you're still down thousands, tens of thousands, maybe for a few of you, hundreds of thousands of dollars so that Donald Trump could demonstrate [00:09:13] just how inept and weak he actually is. Yeah. So proven economic formula. It's true. Herbert Hoover proved that it causes depressions, so I wouldn't go back in that direction. So, and and now here we are. [00:09:29] You know, we talk about the uniparty and how, they're in a lot of ways mirror images of each other. And what was do you guys remember what the strategy for, the Democrats during the Biden era was when Biden seemed to not really be delivering on the progressive bills that he said he was going to deliver on. [00:09:47] They said, don't worry, later it will magically make sense. And that strategy was called, quote, trust Biden. That's literal. That was progressive Caucus Pramila Jayapal saying trust Biden. Now we're at Trust Trump. Trust Trump. No, I don't trust either. [00:10:04] Biden never delivered on those policies. Trump doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. And the proof is in the pudding. He got nothing in return. Are we rebuilding manufacturing? Oh, no. These tariffs are going to stay for ten years and absolutely through the whole term. And manufacturers are going to come back. [00:10:19] So he gave up on rebuilding manufacturing because they're gone. So which one is it. So none of that makes sense. And replacing the income tax with the tariff money which now we won't have. Yeah of course. But it doesn't matter. Nothing's going to stop that runaway train. Right. This is everything is about the tax cuts. They'll do nothing else. [00:10:36] They'll do nothing else but the tax cuts. Okay, so and so. Now, look, you've heard me say throughout all this, there is a right way to do tariffs. And you, can target certain industries. And that's a progressive point of view to rebuild a manufacturing base [00:10:52] through very specific and targeted. Tariffs. That's possible. That's obviously not what he did here. He did nuclear level. But I also we're as bad as fair as you could possibly imagine. I also say hey, if you did an actual reciprocal tariff they have 12% on us put. 12% on them. [00:11:08] No problem. Right. But if they have a, you know, 12% on us and you put 145% on them. What is that? Well, what is that? And China's right about that line about it being considered a joke in history. It will be considered a joke because they're right. [00:11:24] Once you get to a certain age. John's right. Once you get to a certain number, there's absolutely no difference between 100% tariff and 145% tariff because you cannot sell that product. It's too expensive. No one will buy it. So you you know what Trump. Yeah. [00:11:40] They put 125%. We're not making it 1,000,000% tariff. And I guess some folks would buy that. But come on guys get better right. So now So you could have done this in ways where it could have been effective if you were strategic, etc. [00:11:57] But on top of that, I'm even in the camp of no bullying people works, intimidating people works. I you know, we we all wish that we lived in a world where it doesn't work, but it does. You you've seen him bully the entire Republican Party and you've seen him from time to time, bully other countries with tariffs. [00:12:13] But again, you have to be smart and strategic and go, okay, I'm going to isolate Mexico. I'm going to isolate Vietnam. And so now they're in a world of hurt because they're the only ones hurt by the tariffs. But you know we're not overly bothered by just Mexico or Vietnam putting tariffs on us. That's where we build up enormous leverage. [00:12:29] That's how a smart person who believes in tariffs would do it. Now what has he done instead. Again maniacal right tariffs to everyone. Oops I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. Tariffs or no one now like these gargantuan tariffs on China. Which leads to my prediction. [00:12:45] First let's go to our one of our members Vicki, here on Titcombe. She says, Jake, you're always right most of the time. Sometimes I'll take it, Vicki I'll take it. [00:13:00] So let's put it to the test now, okay. So my prediction is this. Yeah. No, the market's recovered. You know that big day on Wednesday that everything bounces back when they thought he got rid of all the tariffs or or certainly he did get rid of most of them. And then it's had a little bit of an up and down. [00:13:15] And it was up today. ET cetera. No, it's going to crash again. And Trump's poll numbers are going to be disastrous, in the next poll and then the second and third poll, they're going to be just in a freefall. Why? Because none of the price increases has hit yet. [00:13:33] All we've had is the stock market thing. But that affects your pension for some of you right away. But for most of you later. Right. And a lot of you don't have any money in the stock market. So the great mass of American people are not nearly as effective as the people howling on cable news who are mainly super rich, right? [00:13:50] So it hit the super rich first, but it hasn't hit the masses yet. Already consumer confidence is way down. It's like at record low levels already and they haven't gotten hit yet with the price increases. But it's okay. He took away the tariffs right. No. We import so much from China. It seems like well it's just one country. [00:14:09] No that means not all prices are going to rise at the same time as they would have if we kept the global tariffs. But that does mean your iPhone price is going to skyrocket and a thousand other products are going to skyrocket in price. And since Trump is so good at propaganda, his side of the country [00:14:29] doesn't understand that that's coming. Like they when it was global, they thought, oh no, we'll have some short term pain. And and you know, look, maybe I got to pay $0.05 more for eggs or something, but it's going to be all right because Daddy Trump he knows trust Trump trust Trump. We got this right. He doesn't know nothing. [00:14:46] And if you say to me now, what would you know that Trump's president. He's going to know better than you. Okay, perfect. Good. Remember that. Because I'm not making these bold predictions. Because they're hard. I'm making them because they're actually easy. It is inevitable. Your price is on. [00:15:03] A lot of products are going to go up, and the American people are going to be super pissed. That's phase two. And that's going to be more disastrous for Trump. Here's what I think the viewers should have a better understanding of is that even if Trump had the most flawless, impeccable plan to reorient [00:15:22] our trade relationships, you know, globally, he would have a hard time getting it through because not only would he be fighting a trade war against China, but he's also domestically fighting a war against the other party. [00:15:39] So he's fighting a two front war here and doesn't have a massive support for this stuff. Like, sure, I'm sure most of the Republican base is still down for it where, you know, three months into this guy's administration, sure, people are still on board. [00:15:55] There are no Democrats down with it, and he's trying to destroy all of the Democrats and their institutions at the same time. So he's not galvanizing some massive popular support. This isn't FDR, right? During the Great Depression, where the Democrats have massive [00:16:11] majorities in both House and Senate, and there was like an actual mandate, like unlike a dude that won by 1.5% who's pretending to have a mandate. So there's that, like there's disunity for his very unpopular agenda. And then what people need to understand is that they're going up against [00:16:29] the People's Republic of China. I'm sorry, they don't have Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, the owners of the economy, acting in their own interests. When China says one of their major companies should jump, they say how high and they act on one accord. [00:16:47] That's the difference. They can make decisions unilaterally for the benefit of their economy. Right. And they can make those decisions not with the arc of a four year presidential term or even potentially eight years, 50 years into the future. [00:17:02] These people are making plans, and Trump thinks that he can just show up and bully these guys as if they're not prepared and don't know every single pressure point of our own economy. That is so intricately interwoven and tied in with theirs. [00:17:17] It's insane. This isn't like, oh, we hate Trump. Yes, all three of us hate Trump. But this is a bad idea. Right. Like I was just saying the other day, like, sometimes, you know, you take Biden with chips. I personally, I don't think we should have did the chips act? I think we should be trying to compete with China and beat their butts. [00:17:34] We're Americans. We can be better than anybody if we put our minds to it. That's my personal belief. But you can understand the logic of like, let's keep them out of the chips market. Let's keep building our AI infrastructure because this is an important. Technology. Keep them out. I disagree, but you can see the vision with this Trump thing right now. [00:17:52] It's not that I don't like Trump. Yes I don't like him. But there's no vision. There's no alright, we're shutting off China's, you know, industry in this sector of the economy. Here's this, an American industry that we're going to give tax incentives to. We're going to spend government, government, [00:18:07] sort of investment with dollars. We're going to open up the Treasury for that industry. There's nothing. Yeah. There's nothing. This guy's just going on TV and blubbering about, this is not going to work. It's going to fail spectacularly wise. You're sounding like you're developing a case of the yips. [00:18:24] - Okay, okay. - I just want to add 1 or 2 things. And you're totally right about China. And just like we just. We don't have a trading relationship with China right now. That seems kind of crazy. I also want to remember, he's still got his crazy negotiations [00:18:41] with Canada and Mexico, And he's still got that new baseline tariff on the entire world, which is around the level that initially he put on China. That created the big dustup during his first term. That's worldwide. And it was sort of my fear that if he does this worldwide 10% tariff or whatever, [00:18:58] and then he jacks it up even bigger and then backtracks, people will be like, well, this is totally cool, and it doesn't hurt us at all. A 10% tariff on the entire world can still do quite a bit of damage, let alone the 25% on automobiles and those sorts of things that again, he has not dialed those back. But I do want to just to to Jenks prior point about what the political [00:19:16] ramifications of this might look like. You need to look at this index of consumer expectations, sort of like a a charting of how people think things are going and how they're going to go, how they feel. And this it's fun when you can say something historic. But April's reading was lower than anything seen as far back. [00:19:35] And during the Great Recession, it is the second lowest reading since 1952. And when you look at that chart, some of you are young. You may not remember all that he's lower right now than Biden was when Biden got thrown out because he wasn't doing good on on the economy. [00:19:52] He's lower than the darkest depths of the pandemic. He's lower than the Great Recession. He's lower than when people were queuing up for for oil or for gasoline during the 70s. And the most amazing thing about all of these is basically every one of those prior dips involved some level complex world, [00:20:10] but some level of act of God, crazy things that this regime is doing, natural disasters, whatever. This is just Trump. He just decided I'm going to do some stuff. You know what? And I'm going to get us lower than we've been basically since the Great Depression. [00:20:26] Purely because he is that monumentally, historically stupid. Yeah, he he kind of grabbed us by the genitalia here for no reason. And he didn't ask for permission. Just one last thing on on John's point that I want to reiterate. You know, back in, like, the.com bust or the housing market crash in oh eight [00:20:46] and just ruined the global economy. George Bush, not credibly, but George Bush could be like, well, I didn't have I didn't do this right. Obama could be like, I just took over a bad economy. Whatever. Bill Clinton could be like, yo, I could have never saw this coming, whatever, with this specific economic meltdown. [00:21:04] There's no other reading. Yeah, there's no other causal effect. It's just Trump. He will wear this thing if he continues down this path. Yeah, yeah. Can we show one more chart just because we have to give Trump credit for the amazing things that he does. And when he breaks history, this chart of economic uncertainty, the [00:21:25] line isn't supposed to go above the title. Look at that. The global pandemic barely registers compared to it. And that's purely just Trump. It took an international breakdown of public health, Transportation, the economy. [00:21:41] We literally were washing the exterior of our boxes of cereal and people were like, not so bad. Trump comes in, they're like, no. And by the way, look, it's not like some sort of, you know, the right loves to say Trump Derangement Syndrome stuff. [00:21:57] No, those numbers were perfectly fine when he won. They were actually pretty good when he won. So people were excited that Trump was coming in. They thought they were going to get something better. Now that they've seen what they're going to get there, that number can be characterized in words as well. [00:22:13] And it's called oops. And so last word goes to one of our members on Titcomb. Pseudodragon in the US has now proven that it is an unreliable ally and an unreliable trading partner, forcing the rest of the world to figure out how to get along without you. [00:22:30] Just like when you pulled out of the Paris Accords, the US is never going to recover the place it once had. And so that's a devastatingly good point. Because once the world thinks, hey, okay, it's Trump. Now, first of all, that's four brutal years. [00:22:46] But now we don't know who Americans are going to elect. What if they elect another Trump? What if they and another one and another one? So if these guys are totally unreliable and they act in spazzy ways like this, where they're like, oh, hey, ally, how are you doing, ally? - And he slaps him across the face. - Here's a 50% tariff. [00:23:03] And they're like, oh, okay, so you guys are deranged. So obviously any rational set of people would make arrangements to go around you, right? And so that's what the entire world is doing now, making arrangements to go around us. And that has devastating long term impact. Yeah. [00:23:21] All right. Love the members. Thanks for being a part of the show. By the way. If you want to be one of the members that's part of the show. You can get two months off of annual membership there. Or you can hit the join button below on YouTube. Every time you ring the bell below, an angel gets its wings. Totally not true, but it does keep you updated on our live shows.