A shout out, our helicopter, very expensive helicopter by the way, but much more importantly, two men, fortunately they're okay. We hit them hard yesterday and we're gonna hit them again hard today in case you miss it, in case you don't turn on your television set. And we'll [00:00:17] see what happens with the deal. were really close to a deal, but they keep tapping us along. They keep playing us for suckers because you know what? They dealt with some very stupid precedents. President Trump is using an alleged Iranian attack on an Apache helicopter near [00:00:33] the Strait of Hormuz to justify reigniting war with Iran. Now the claim is that an Iranian Shaheed drone struck the helicopter. Take a look at this. President Trump tells Fox News that the Iranian drone lodged in between the two pilots in this helicopter. They were flying [00:00:54] very low. And at that point, The drone didn't explode as it had intended to. And so these pilots were trying to take down the helicopter with the drone lodged into this gunship without it exploding. And at any moment it could have exploded, the president told me. And he said [00:01:13] it was on fire, there was a lot of heat inside the cockpit of this helicopter. And ultimately these two pilots were able to take it down into the sea where ultimately they were rescued for the first time in US military history. by an unmanned sea drone. Now if those claims [00:01:31] sound outlandish, you wouldn't be the only one who thinks so. In fact, military experts like Colonel Daniel Davis and former CIA analyst Larry Johnson had a conversation about this alleged attack. And they bring up some points that are relevant if you want to see whether [00:01:47] or not this is true. Let's take a look at their analysis and then we'll bring Trita in to give us his take, take a look. That drone, the Shahid there, ah is it's the size of the cockpit. I mean, the whole cockpit, there's no way it could get in between them and just uh sit [00:02:07] there like a ticking time bomb. This is uh the Shaheed drone there, so you see how big it is. So if these are the size of two pilots that you can see there, the guys who were standing right next to it. And then here is the age 64 from a different angle here. And as you're talking about this, this cockpit has to rise up. uh go upwards. So there's no side door [00:02:28] to get out. So almost any version of anything quote in the cockpit window makes it nearly physically impossible to have escaped. So the story can't be true in terms of, but then again, look back at this. Now imagine this embedded in this, how's that even possible? It can't [00:02:47] hang in there. It can't lodge in there as big as this thing is. It would just destroy the helicopter if it hit it. There's no scenario that this and this is the drone that they talked about, is going to hit this and it not just blasted out of the sky. So considering the [00:03:04] fact that the Trump administration appears to be using this alleged attack on the Apache helicopter as their rationale for reengaging in this war with Iran, I think it's important to figure out whether or not they're lying about it. uh And so Trita, for whatever it's worth, [00:03:22] I know you might not be a military expert, I'm- super curious what you might be hearing from your sources in regard to this alleged attack. Because I remember yesterday, Iran was basically denying it, ah but has anything changed since then? I've not seen anything [00:03:38] from the Iranians claiming that they were the ones that were behind it. In fact, the pattern at this point has been that very different from the past in which the Iranians were trying to make sure that they have plausible deniability, that they were doing things without their fingerprints on it. That's not the pattern as of late, so ah If they did do it, there's a significant [00:03:58] likelihood that they would ah take credit for it or claim it. have not, doesn't mean that their side of the story is true either. Most conversations I've had, however, about this to be frank with Yana has just completely moved beyond whether this story is true or not. [00:04:13] Because a new reality is now establishing. The United States is attacking Iran, and the Iranians are now firing ballistic missiles again. So it appears at this point, that the ceasefire is officially over, and that we are back at war. And uh much to unpack about that because [00:04:31] what are the calculations? What are the things that the two sides think that they can achieve, etc? And at the end of it, if it turns out that all of this was started over a lie, over an Apache, that would be a fantastic story, or it would be an interesting story in different ways. But at this point, seems like there's a desire to go back to the battlefield. whatever [00:04:52] the reason is, whatever the pretext is, whatever the excuse is, there's a desire to go back to the battlefield. And to be frank with you, I'm sensing it from both sides, not just from the US side. I mean, I can understand why Iran would want to reengage. And if everything [00:05:07] that's been reported is in fact true, math is math. And Iran has more weaponry than the United States has, certainly as it pertains to interceptors, and not just the United States. Israel is running out of interceptors. And these are interceptors that are difficult and [00:05:25] they uh take a long time to build. The drones are much easier and faster to build. And then on top of that, the drones aren't necessary, they're able to evade the interceptors. Again, [00:05:41] my mind wanders back to how badly Israel wanted the war to start again, knowing their own limitations. Why would they want that unless, and this is the most cynical thought I've ever had in my mind. But I asked you about it last week and you said that it's not as [00:05:59] uh outlandish as some might think. There's a possibility that maybe they're going to wait for Iran to do so much damage to Israel that Israel might use non-conventional weapons, nuclear weapons. retaliate and then justify it based on how much pain they were suffering [00:06:16] as a result of these ballistic missile strikes. Yes, unfortunately we are in this space right now in which both in the Israeli media and in the US media, we have articles that are openly talking about the fact that the nuclear option has been considered has been part of the discussions. [00:06:36] They don't go into any further details beyond that, but that's really where we are. So it's not outlandish and it's not however insane it actually is. Unfortunately, it is not outlandish. I think we have a situation in which the Israelis from the outset never wanted to cease fire and they wanted to continue the war and they wanted the United States to just destroy as [00:06:54] much of Iran as possible. And we're very disappointed that he opted for a ceasefire and the Israelis show very little regard of how all of this is affecting the global economy, the American taxpayer, etc. Because at the end of the day, the Israeli economy has been quite insulated [00:07:12] from all of this. ah But you had- that possible? Is it just because- very good question. We're bankrolling everything and they don't have to worry about it? I don't know the full answer, but I do believe that the subsidies that are coming from the United States one way or another is part of the reason. Of course, they're not um importing any oil from the Persian Gulf, [00:07:31] but so is Other countries are also not necessarily buying it from the Persian Gulf, but they're still affected by very high oil prices. What I think happened here is that the Iranians and the Americans both were open to find a way out. But their ideas of what that would be [00:07:48] was very different. And over time, even though when there's been moments in which there's been significant progress, it's just been a very bizarre. negotiating process. And Trump has changed his positions several times in these negotiations. And on the other hand, [00:08:03] the Iranians, they in fact, they even admitted, they say we have not said yes, we have not said no. So they have not given the type of a clarity that Trump is constantly looking for. And Trump's uh inclination is to really oh escalate and put more pressure and use worse [00:08:20] language when he doesn't get what he wants. And particularly when he feels that the other side is stringing him along. I don't think necessarily the Iranians are stringing him along. It's just that they're negotiating and he's saying, well, this is my offer, take it or leave it. And I know I'm simplifying a little bit here. The problem is this, both sides believe that [00:08:42] the underlying balance that has been created from the first war needs to change in order to make a deal possible. Because whatever it changed, didn't change it enough. So the US wants to change it in a manner to really put the Iranians into a corner so that they're [00:08:58] forced to agree to whatever the terms is that the US puts forward. The Iranians believe that they will take huge amount of tactical hits, but strategically they will come out of a second war stronger just as they did with the first war because they gained the leverage [00:09:14] of the Strait of Hormuz. ah But now they're hurting because of the blockade and they want to push back against that and they think they have to do that militarily. There's absolutely no guarantee that either side will be right in this. Both of them may completely lose out of this situation. Everyone else in the world certainly will be losing because there's [00:09:33] a very significant difference between the moment we're starting this war and the moment in which the war was started back in February. Back then by happenstance, oil inventory globally was very, very high. And as a result, there was a buffer. against these rising oil prices [00:09:52] and the shortages of fuel that was being created as a result of the closure of the hormones. Those inventories are now very low, which means that if you start to work again now, we're going to see much higher oil prices unless of course, it ends up being a short war or a very short successful war. And so far we haven't seen anything short and successful. Right, [00:10:10] I mean, we've been tapping into our strategic oil reserves and uh we are set to run out. pretty quickly by the end of the summer is one of the more generous estimates that I've heard analysts mention. But I want to note that the Wall Street Journal is reporting that [00:10:29] the individual who allegedly pressured or goaded uh President Trump to engage in more strikes against Iran was our Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. So uh they write that Trump- Hadn't been convinced of the need to retaliate against Iran earlier in the day, US officials said. [00:10:48] He changed his mind after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Cain recommended military action during a briefing at the White House. But it remains unclear what would be accomplished by engaging militarily. Because there really [00:11:03] isn't a military option to accomplish some of the objectives that Trump had laid out in the beginning of the war. And uh it does, at least right now, appear that Trump is carrying out some of what he promised to do earlier in one of the most controversial posts that he put [00:11:19] up on social media. They're attacking civilian infrastructure, basically water reservoirs. So this is from DropSite News. They write uh a reported US attack on two water reservoirs in southern Iran has left 20,000 people without access to drinking water. According to uh [00:11:39] their Mizan news agency, in a statement, the local Iranian water utility company said the reservoirs were targeted and completely destroyed on Wednesday morning in US strikes. uh And so I really hope that it doesn't keep going in this direction, but with someone like Trump, [00:11:56] wouldn't be, and someone like Trump who has packed his cabinet with warmongers and unhinged individuals like Pete Hegseth, I don't really have much hope. uh But I am curious uh what your thoughts are. you think that this is just, with the US reengaging militarily, do you [00:12:14] think that they're just going to try to destroy as much of Iran as possible on behalf of Israel? And if so, what would that accomplish? Would that even spur regime change in Iran? So we have to recognize, first of all, we're operating in the fog of war and the fog of information. [00:12:31] And it's very difficult to know whether the information is reliable or not. There's a lot of backstabbing taking place in the White House right now. Different leaks coming out to put certain people in a good light or a bad light. ah So it's still unclear about that. But if [00:12:47] it is true that the targets that we're seeing the US strike so far is around the Strait of Hormuz, it would lend itself to one plausible scenario, which is that the Trump administration in the last couple of weeks have managed to open up a bit of that strait and gotten some [00:13:06] tankers out. And they have found out a manner in which the Iranians have difficulty of closing certain parts of the strait. And they're now trying to further limit the Iranians ability to do so by striking some of these key areas very close to the strait while simultaneously [00:13:25] reducing Iran's ability to challenge Trump's blockade of the blockade. And then thinking that if they can do this without massive Iranian retaliation, that would force further escalation of the war, which I don't think they're going to achieve because I think the Iranians are [00:13:40] going to retaliate and escalate horizontally as they did before. But they think that they may be able to do this without having that uh repercussion. If that happens, they will pull back and then say, okay, now you have a new scenario. The Strait is partially open and [00:13:56] you have failed to challenge the blockade of the blockade. As a result, time is not on your side, you're to get a worse situation. And as a result, you should agree to whatever the terms are that Trump will put forward at that point, which probably will be harsher than the terms are right now. I can see that scenario, particularly if the strikes continue to be [00:14:16] limited to that area. If however, the strikes are starting to go in many different parts of Iran. And particularly if it goes after infrastructure and petrochemical plants, and uh energy infrastructure, then I think we're looking at something much, much different. [00:14:31] ah That is a level of escalation that the Trump administration was much more careful about in the first war. The Israelis kept on pushing him to go in that direction. He didn't. He didn't because he knew that the Iranians would take out those facilities on the GCC side and [00:14:46] would be a disaster situation, particularly for the energy market. But if they're going in that direction, then we're looking at a completely different type of an escalation that Trump has in mind. Have you gotten any word on how Iran has responded to US strikes so far? [00:15:04] We've only seen so far that there is reports that ballistic missiles have been fired. By now they probably have landed somewhere, I don't know. I presume that there will be significant strikes against Israel again. um And of course, some escalation in the region, all depends [00:15:20] on what the first American strikes were. If the initial American strikes also included, And there's been some reporting on the Iranian side, which then has been denied by other Iranian state reporting that there's been targeting of petrochemical plants, etc. But if that [00:15:37] ends up being the case, then I think we will see a much larger escalation and both sides will probably go harder at each other than they did in the first war. And the Iranians in particular will probably draw the conclusion that they did not escalate hard enough in the first war before they agreed to a ceasefire. So this has all of the hallmarks of a completely uncontrollable [00:15:58] escalation, unfortunately. Absolutely, and I keep, it's not the most important thing. mean, innocent human lives and saving those innocent human lives, I believe is the most important thing. But uh this does have repercussions for the global economy. And certainly Americans [00:16:15] are already starting to experience it when it comes to inflation in the broader economy here in the United States. The latest Labor uh Department reporting indicates that inflation is accelerating from last month, it's already accelerated. And so Trump was actually asked [00:16:33] about inflation related to this war. I want to go to video B5 and then get your thoughts on it, Trita. Take a look. I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, I can say it now. Something you didn't know, we've been taking out. Millions of barrels [00:16:53] of oil. Nobody knows it. You who doesn't know about it? Iran until right now. We took out the other night 22 ships late at night with no lights because they don't have any radar because we blasted the crap out of it. We took out this way, oil is $85 a barrel. In fact, [00:17:13] $85 a barrel but nonetheless, mean, I can't trust anything that this man says but. I do want to know if you have any clarity on what he's referring to when he says that we basically stole Iranian oil and that oil prices are actually fantastic. Clearly oil prices are not fantastic. [00:17:30] think there's been I think around 16 or so oil tankers that have been attacked. ah And in the past the United States even under the Biden administration did confiscate oil tankers, Iranian oil tankers on the high seas. You had a scenario in which a lot of the different [00:17:47] Iranian old tankers that were selling oil to China would have to turn off their transponders so that they wouldn't be visible to the United States. So even under the Biden administration, this was happening. So it wouldn't be surprising at all if that is part of what they have done. The Iranians have tried to get some tankers out of the straits. They have succeeded in [00:18:05] some cases, but they may also have failed in which the US, I think just last night there was an attack against an old tanker and they confiscated it. ah But I also think that there's a hint to the fact that they have managed to open a small sliver of the strait. There's [00:18:21] not much traffic coming out of it, obviously, at the end of the day. But essentially, they do believe that there is um a potential here for them to really be able to change the equation by getting more ships out while the Iranians continue to not be able to get ships in or [00:18:37] out. Because one thing that is forgotten about this blockade of the blockade that Trump is imposing is that he's also preventing food, medicine, and other things to get into Iran. Absolutely, and that is reflected in the price of food already. But it's gonna have downstream [00:18:52] effects that are gonna be far more extreme than what we're already experiencing, which is what makes this war just so utterly stupid. The idea that this is gonna accomplish anything positive uh for the global community, for the United States is laughable. It remains to [00:19:08] be seen if Israel is going to have its way or get what it wants through uh what we're engaging in militarily. uh