We have just reported on the Saudi oil refinery that was struck and the oil fields that were targeted. Now there's some confusion as to whether or not that was carried out by Iran, or if it was a false flag operation carried out by Israel. We are waiting to learn more about that, and we need confirmation, of course. [00:00:18] However, Oman has also reported an attack on an oil tanker 50 miles off their coast. Qatar, one of the world's largest producers of LNG, announced Monday that they are halting liquefied natural gas production because of attacks by Iran [00:00:35] on two key operating facilities. It appears that there's a lot more clarity when it comes to that attack on Qatar. It was apparently carried out by the Iranians. We want to be clear about that. And shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% [00:00:51] of global oil supply flows through, has come to a near halt after at least three tankers were damaged over the weekend. Now, several marine insurers have now said that they are canceling war risk coverage [00:01:06] for ships operating in the region, while other insurers have decided to jack up their rates. And today, Iran has threatened to fire on any ship that tries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. So clearly, this is going to have a huge impact on the global economy. [00:01:24] And all of this, in fact, already is having major implications when it comes to oil prices. So if you take a look at this graph, you'll see that prices spiked when markets opened last night, with the global benchmark Brant Crude, hitting $82 per barrel. The price then dropped a bit, but rose again after news broke [00:01:43] of the attack on the Saudi refinery. And then this morning, Brant was trading at $79 a barrel, up nearly 9% from Friday's close. And as of this afternoon, it's up by nearly 6% at $77 a barrel. There are concerns that if these disruptions continue, [00:02:01] if this war continues to escalate, and to be quite frank, it has escalated into a regional war. Prices could eventually top $100 a barrel. That's going to mean a lot of pain for people around the world, including here in the United States, where our current economic environment [00:02:17] is not so friendly to ordinary Americans. In the states, prices have already started rising at the gas pumps. Nationwide, the average price of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. Is currently $2.99 a gallon, up 2% from a week ago. [00:02:32] And that's according to triple A. And Patrick DeHaan, an analyst with the GasBuddy, estimates that in the next few days, the spike in crude oil prices will push U.S. Gasoline prices up by 10 to $0.30 on average, with some individual stations [00:02:49] seeing prices rise as much as $0.85. And you know, of course, the impacts on the global economy will be pretty bad, depending on how long this war drags on, more damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf and disruptions to shipping [00:03:05] will mean that consumers here in the United States will face higher prices and not just at the gas pump. Remember, the cost of delivering and shipping items is going to go up because you need energy. You need gas in order to do that. And in response to the war, eight countries that are part of the OPEC [00:03:22] plus cartel announced that they would boost production of crude oil. But more supply doesn't necessarily mean that the prices will be kept under control. So Jorge Leon, who is Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis, [00:03:38] says the following roughly one fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for world trade, meaning markets are more concerned with whether barrels can move than with spare capacity. On paper, it if flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production [00:03:57] will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets. - Jake. - Yeah. So, there's a couple of reasons why they might have added the Iranian Navy to the list of all the things we must destroy in Iran before we can leave. [00:04:17] And so one of the reasons is, of course, Israel. That's 99% of the reason why we're in the war in the first place. And they don't want any country in the Middle East to have any weapons. They want everyone to be defenseless. Otherwise, they don't feel safe. They don't feel safe. Right. [00:04:33] But the second reason is, well, because they could block the Strait of Hormuz. And so if they do, we're going to have economic problems. And we'd like a war free of any problems. We'd like to kill you all. We'd like to change your government. We'd like to, you know, bomb hospitals and schools, but you don't [00:04:50] get to do anything back to us. Oh, my God, you close the Strait of Hormuz. Our gas prices are up slightly. We are slightly inconvenienced by this terrible war that we've started against you. Well, yeah. What did you think they were going to do? They're going to fight back. Like there's this constant thing that is in media and in politics in Washington [00:05:07] where they're like, they feel like we have a right to attack anyone and they do not have a right to defend themselves. And this is another Israel ification of our government, because Israel claims that, right all the time. We have a right to occupy the occupied the Palestinians for 58 years. They do not have a right to fight back. If they fight back, they're terrorists. [00:05:25] If we keep slaughtering them, we're a special ally. And everybody in the media goes along with it. Now, there's a second issue that I want to talk about here. Our stock market has lost its mind. So what happened this morning? I've been tracking it because of the war. Right. The Dow the Dow's up okay. [00:05:42] So no but seriously in the beginning of the day it took a significant dip because we were like oh we're at war. And oh my god the Strait of Hormuz and the oil and and but also other shipping going through that strait. And then by the afternoon they're like, don't worry about it. [00:05:59] War doesn't have any costs and oil prices are up. That's good for the market. No it isn't. No it isn't. At some point people pay those prices and we run out of money, so we can't buy anything else. That is not good for the market. That's terrible for the market. [00:06:15] I look, Wall Street is even crazier these days than Washington is, and that seems near impossible. But no matter what happens, they keep buying like morons. I know they're like a they're like, AI is coming. It's going to wipe out 25% of jobs. Our economy will be absolutely pulverized. [00:06:32] They're like, but the AI companies are gold. Let's buy, buy, buy, buy buy. So there's a giant crash coming. I don't know when it is, but like this is totally unsustainable. And these morons, every day they buy more instead of realizing what economic pain [00:06:48] we're about to go through. And we were already in pain. But guys, this is just the beginning. By the time this war is concluded, God knows when and the AI apocalypse hits. This is going to seem like a dream. This is it's going to get much, much. I'm Mr. Optimist, but my job is to tell you the truth and level with you guys. [00:07:07] And I'm telling you, especially as as far as the economy goes, things are going to get way, way worse. I don't know when they're going to get better. Well, luckily we have competent leaders that will help guide us through it all.