Dec 30, 2025
Michael Burry Is Betting AGAINST Nvidia, Palantir
Michael Burry is betting against Nvidia and Palantir.
- 10 minutes
You were very defensive,
for instance, around short sellers.
Michael Burry
putting the short on this weekend.
Some people were wondering
if they were too.
What I was defensive about and not
defensive, I would say offensive about.
I don't like short sellers and you know,
everyone's like, oh, it's price discovery.
Great. That's like saying you're a lawyer.
[00:00:15]
You don't have to defend
the pedophile, you know?
Yeah, I'm all in favor
of everyone having a defense.
I'm in favor of civil rights
and defense for the innocent
and for of the guilty, because that's
how you have civil liberties.
If you're a lawyer,
you don't have to work for a terrorist.
You don't have to work for a pedophile.
If you're a short seller, you do not have
to actually short a truly great company.
[00:00:35]
That was hilarious.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp riled up over the
fact that legendary investor Michael Burry
has decided to short Palantir
in addition to Nvidia.
Apparently, Karp is very upset
at short sellers.
[00:00:52]
Not in favor of that, allegedly.
Jake, what do you think about that?
I think it's hilarious.
Michael Burry, go get him. Go get him.
Okay.
So. And was he referring
to Alan Dershowitz there?
Because it sounded like he was saying,
why did Alan Dershowitz, defend child
[00:01:13]
predator Jeffrey Epstein for no reason?
Interesting. Surprising take on that one.
But I'll tell you what short sales
are actually about and why Barry might be
right and these guys might be in trouble,
which would be amazing news.
Yeah.
And look what you think about people
who engage in, you know, shorting stocks
[00:01:32]
doesn't really matter.
What matters here is the reasoning
behind why Barry is
shorting these specific stocks.
So look, he is famous for predicting
the housing market crash of 2008.
Doesn't mean he's right about everything,
but he was very right about that.
[00:01:50]
Now, these days, he's been feuding
with the leadership of Palantir and Nvidia
because in November, Barry announced
that he had shorted the stocks
of both those companies.
And if you're not familiar with shorting,
all you need to know
is that Burry will make money.
If the value of the stock
for these companies drops by 2027.
[00:02:11]
In other words, Burry is betting
that both companies
will lose steam or fail outright.
Now let's watch more of Alex Karp
absolutely raging out about this for fun.
And then I'll give you more details
in regard to Burry's reasoning.
When I hear short sellers attacking
what I believe is clearly the most
[00:02:30]
important software company in America, and
therefore in the world in terms of impact,
simply to make money and calling,
trying to call the AI revolution into
question where we have these, this
anomalous numbers 114, rule of 40, etc.
It just is super triggering because these
people, they could pick on any company
[00:02:47]
in the world, they have to pick on the one
that actually helps people,
that actually has made money
for the average person that is
actually supporting our warfighters,
why do they have to go after us?
And I'll tell you what, though.
It's crazy motivating
because I'll tell you why.
The short sellers are constantly getting
screwed by Palantir, because every time
[00:03:04]
they short us, we just are like tripling
down on getting the better numbers
and part honestly to make them poorer.
So Karp seems very stressed out.
And if you're watching Landman,
my only hope is that he's just
[00:03:19]
as stressed out as Monty is.
Or was.
And if you get that reference,
you get what I mean.
But nonetheless, Nvidia has also tried
to push back against Burry's argument,
saying,
following Burry's series
of social media posts arguing that the
[00:03:34]
artificial intelligence investment boom is
replaying the.com bubble from the 1990s,
Nvidia quietly circulated a private memo
to analysts that explicitly name checked
Burry to push back on many of his claims.
[00:03:51]
For his part,
Burry argues that massive CapEx plans,
extended depreciation schedules
and soaring valuations as evidence.
The markets are again mistaking
a supply boom for durable demand.
[00:04:09]
Now I am totally okay with admitting I'm
a moron and I don't know what that means.
But Jake, I feel like you might know
what that means.
Like, what does massive CapEx plans mean?
Yeah,
so it's not about being smart or stupid.
It's about whether you just
know these terms or not.
[00:04:26]
So look, none of that is important.
So X is expenses.
And and so cap is for capital.
It's there's a lot to explain
in the business world etc..
Bottom line is what Berry
is saying is it's overvalued.
[00:04:43]
He's not making a value judgment on it
in terms of morals.
He's making a value judgment
in terms of finances.
He's saying that,
there's a big boom in supply.
So Palantir is producing a lot of things.
AI is producing.
I'm sorry, Nvidia is producing a lot
of things, but that doesn't mean
[00:05:00]
that there's going to be demand for those.
If there is demand down the road,
then okay, then it makes sense
that maybe their valuations are right.
But he's saying that there's not going
to be as much demand
as they think there's going to be.
That's a huge problem.
Then he gets into the internal workings
of their finances and their leverage
[00:05:16]
and their debt and their CapEx, etc.
He sees problems there as well.
But his number one issue, and what I think
he's most right about is there's a craze
right now where people are buying Nvidia,
especially more so than Palantir, but
Palantir as well, in an irrational way.
[00:05:34]
And, you know, it's irrational.
You know, that we're near the peak
of the bubble when two things happen.
One is when people tell you
that a stock can't go down.
And I've now been hearing many times,
oh, Nvidia can't go down.
It's a new kind of market.
[00:05:50]
That means the bubble
is on the edge of bursting.
Okay.
Literally the same exact thing I heard
about the housing market back in 2008
and the.com bubble back in 2000.
No, this is a new market, Jake.
You don't understand.
This doesn't go up and down anymore.
It just goes up. Sure, brother.
[00:06:06]
I've seen this movie before.
The second way you know
that the bubble is about to burst
is when Michael Burry starts shorting it.
Okay, so now you can tell that I'm right.
How can you tell
by the CEO of Palantir Corp
that we just showed you by his reaction?
[00:06:22]
Because he's a cold, sweaty mess.
I've never seen an executive act
like that on television.
And if you're wondering, really is, yes,
in the business world,
going it's so unfair to short us is the
equivalent of crying like that, brother.
It's free markets. Deal with it.
[00:06:41]
Capitalism. It's a bitch sometimes.
Everybody's allowed to bet long.
Everybody's allowed to bet short.
If you're betting short,
that means I think your stock value
is going to go down.
That happens 50% of the time.
So that's a very normal bet
when a CEO comes out, goes, oh,
[00:06:57]
this is so unfair to us.
Oh, you're in trouble, aren't you?
That means he's really worried
about that short.
If the shorts work, guys,
it is a huge problem for those companies.
But, Anna,
that's all the business context, etc..
But my favorite part was he's like,
why are they doing this
[00:07:13]
to such good companies?
We're here at Palantir
trying to spy in on all the world,
and we just helped Israel destroy Gaza.
And we'd like to do that for America
and the rest of the world.
Why are they hurting the poor good guys?
No, it is amazing
how they view themselves, right?
[00:07:31]
How I genuinely think Alex Karp thinks
he's a good guy and that his company
is doing great things.
But I want to give you a few more details
about Burry's rationale
for shorting Nvidia and Palantir,
because and you did touch on it briefly,
but I want to emphasize it
because he talks about how these companies
[00:07:49]
are too overreliant on welfare,
on government contracts.
The other reason he gives is
that executive pay
for these companies is too high.
I'm going to go ahead and bet
that Alex Karp doesn't take kindly to
anyone drawing attention to his high pay.
[00:08:06]
So Barry actually wrote in his Substack
that Palantir has the distinction of being
the first billionaire revenue ratio
greater than one that I have ever seen.
Or I have seen five billionaires
due to stock ownership
[00:08:23]
and less than 4 billion in annual revenue.
So in other words, they're they're
paying their executives
more than what the company is even worth.
As for Nvidia, take a look at this graph.
I know it looks crazy.
I'll explain it to you in just a moment.
[00:08:39]
So, what's important here
is the pattern that you see.
So each of those arrows represents
money or services
flowing from one company into another.
OpenAI, Nvidia.
Oracle, Microsoft and other companies
are visible in this chart,
[00:08:54]
and critics like Burry have argued
that those companies are passing around
the same hundreds of billions of dollars
back and forth to each other.
Innovation, baby. Innovation.
So that's where we are with that.
[00:09:10]
Anyway, any final thoughts
before we move on?
Yeah. Real quick.
On the point that you made,
I just want to make a quick correction.
So they're paying. They're paying.
The net worth of their five executives are
worth more than what the company makes,
[00:09:26]
not what the company is worth.
And so therein lies the rub, right?
So he's saying, look,
you guys are paying these folks so much
that it's more than even combined.
Now, again, it's a little apples
and oranges because that's their net worth
[00:09:42]
versus the revenue of the company.
It's more than the revenue of the.
Company even in this year
where you're doing great.
So that's way too much.
The palantir would say.
Yeah, but our worth is so high.
The company's worth is so high that
the revenue is not the relevant number.
[00:09:59]
And Burry is saying.
That's exactly my point, guys.
You're pretending the valuation of the
company is gigantic, and hence why you're
paying these guys billions of dollars.
But you haven't made that money yet.
It's all speculative,
and I'm speculating that you aren't going
[00:10:15]
to make all that money.
And that's why I'm shorting you.
And he has every right to do that.
It's a free market,
and Karp should learn how to deal with it.
But my guess is he won't.
He'll bribe more legally.
Bribe more politicians,
try to fix the rules.
And in fact, soon you might be hearing
corrupt politicians working for these guys
[00:10:35]
start to talk about, well,
maybe we should limit the markets,
and maybe we shouldn't allow shorting
in the way that we're talking about here,
because they have to protect their donors.
Every time you ring the bell below,
an angel gets his wings.
Totally not true.
But it does keep you updated
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