How do Americans feel about the big, beautiful bill? Yeah, if we're talking about adjectives, how about they think it's awful? They think it's horrible. And to quote our colleague, Charles Barkley. Terrible terrible, terrible. Well, some Senate Republicans actually happen to agree [00:00:18] that the bill in its current form is terrible, terrible, terrible. And the Senate Republicans are in a race against the clock to pass this wildly unpopular, one big, beautiful bill act before Donald Trump's self-imposed July 4th deadline. [00:00:34] At least two Republicans are holding out, and many more are uncertain whether they'll even back the bill. So it's not even clear if they'll be able to meet that deadline, or at least send the legislation back to the House in time to meet that deadline. Now, compared to the House version of the bill, which was bad enough, [00:00:51] the Senate version adds even more to the national debt and also robs more Americans of health care. So just to give you the exact numbers we're talking about here, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate bill would increase the deficit [00:01:08] by nearly $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2024, a nearly $1 trillion increase over the House passed bill, which CBO has projected would add $2.4 trillion to the debt over a decade. [00:01:24] Now, the analysis also found that 11.8 million Americans would become uninsured by 2034 if the bill passed a roughly 1 million person increase over the scoring for the House version of the bill. [00:01:40] So, in other words, the Senate took a bad bill and they're like, how can we make this even worse for the country? How can we target vulnerable Americans even more? How can we add more to the debt? And then they're going to send it back to the house. Although, to be fair, it hasn't passed in the Senate quite yet. So here's a breakdown of the components of the bill that will, in fact, increase [00:01:59] the national debt over the next ten years. So these are the provisions that are the most costly. And as you can see, at the very top of that list is the extension of Donald Trump's 2017 tax cuts, which disproportionately benefit the wealthiest among us. [00:02:15] That's going to cost us about $2.2 trillion over the next ten years. Then you have some more costly provisions, including the fact that they want to essentially add $158 billion in defense spending. And also just quickly notice that when it comes to no tax on overtime or no tax on [00:02:34] tips, those provisions are set to sunset or expire by the end of 2028. The tax cuts that disproportionately benefit businesses, for instance, you see that for $564.6 billion, or the extension of the Trump era tax cuts. [00:02:51] Those are not set to expire based on how the bill is currently written. And then how are they going to pay for it? Well, they're not okay because the provisions that would save money do harm the neediest among us, but they don't even come close to paying for the bill. Let's just take a quick look at the next graphic here. [00:03:08] As you can see, they're expecting to cut $1.1 trillion from Medicaid. In the Senate version of the bill, they also want to save $2 billion by cutting worker protections for federal workers. - Jake. - Yeah. So let's break this down one by one. [00:03:24] And there are actually some good things in the bill. Even though overall it's a disaster. So let's bring back up the, the chart on the things that it costs us. So the first one is, Anna pointed out, is the continuation of the tax cut. So a majority of that goes to the rich. [00:03:41] In fact, half of that goes to the top 1%. So that's a giant number that doesn't need to be there at all. That has nothing to do with balancing the budget. It has nothing to do with cost containment. It adds to the debt directly by giving to the richest people in the country. [00:03:56] Now, when you move down the list, increase the third one. Increased standard deduction by up to $2,000. That's not that bad because that goes more to the middle class. The next one increased child tax credit and linked to inflation. That's actually pretty good. - I agree with. - That. Yeah. So I'm relatively happy with that one. [00:04:13] And then you've got the by the way buried in that border wall and immigration restrictions is $46 billion for Donald Trump's useless wall. So that's just to make him happy even though that really doesn't have anything to do with it. We got the border under control without any wall, right. So you actually, even if you give Trump credit for what he's done so far, [00:04:31] which I don't mind doing in terms of the border itself, he did that without a wall. So he doesn't need the 46 billion. Okay. But now keep going up. So no tax on tips. No tax on car loan interest. No tax on overtime. Not bad, not bad okay. [00:04:46] Those are the more middle class ones okay. But you see what they add up to. They add up to about 20% of business tax breaks that got newly added. It's like just half $1 trillion. More than half $1 trillion. [00:05:04] Oh, the lobbyists came into the Senate and they're like, well, this company wants that and that corporation wants that. And remember all that stuff we did about the tax and the overtime and the tips and stuff got tricked into thinking that was like a huge part of the bill. That was the majority of the tax cuts. [00:05:20] You could see it right there in the numbers. It is tiny, tiny, tiny part of the tax cuts. And as Anna explained, they expire. But the ones for the businesses, they are always permanent. And that's what like totally robs our, revenue and our and our government, [00:05:37] of, of any ability to sustain itself and adds tremendously to the debt. So can I just add one other thing about the tax breaks for businesses? Now, keep in mind that in 2017, when Trump's original version of the tax, you know, tax cut legislation passed, it ensured that the corporate tax rate [00:05:57] was lowered from 35% to 21%, and he did not get rid of corporate tax loopholes, meaning that those deductions that corporations take advantage of remain in place. Those corporate tax cuts were permanent in the 2017 bill, meaning these additional [00:06:14] tax breaks for businesses come on top of the already lowered corporate tax rate. It's just absurd. It absolutely is absurd. So here, last one from the, where they're adding on provisions. So it's it's the last one on the list. Savings account for newborns. [00:06:31] Don't sleep on that one. That one's actually a really good proposal originally, by Cory Booker. And that actually has its roots in reparations, believe it or not. But they're applying it to all the kids. So it's a way of starting a savings account for your kids when they're born. [00:06:47] I don't know anybody that's supposed to it. That's wonderful. You see credit where credit is due. It's so small. It's $17 billion, right? The other one, that half of which goes to the richest $2.2 trillion and half of which I say go to the rich, and most of it go to the rich. [00:07:02] The half of it goes to the top 1%. So 17 billion for the new kids, 1.1 trillion for people making above $500,000. But if that's not enough, they add another $564 billion on for business breaks that didn't exist before. [00:07:17] That's why even as they cut Medicaid even more in the Senate version, they still add to the debt more than the House version because they loaded up with pork for all their donors. Yeah. That's right. Look, if you take these little tiny separate provisions, sure, [00:07:34] you can make a case that there are a few good things in the bill overall. When you look at the grand scheme of things, this bill is disastrous for the American people and the future of this country, considering how much it's adding to our already massive federal debt of $37 trillion. So, for instance, as you can see from, you know what, the lawmakers plan to focus [00:07:52] most of their savings on? Why are they specifically going after Medicaid recipients the most vulnerable among us. And today, the Senate had a vote a rama, where they voted on a slew of amendments to the bill, including many proposed by Democrats that were, of course, rejected [00:08:08] since they're in the minority. And for Medicare fraudster Rick Scott. And I mean that, you know, in the actual sense of the word, he is a fraudster. He was involved in the biggest Medicare fraud scheme in American history. [00:08:24] Well, he looks at that $1.1 trillion being proposed in Medicaid cuts in the Senate and says, no, not enough. I want more cuts. I want them to go deeper. The proposal, by the way, would lower the share of medical bills paid by the federal government for childless adult Medicaid beneficiaries [00:08:42] who sign up for the program after 2030 and could cause several states to abandon their Medicaid expansions. So that is the proposal, or I should say, the amendment that Rick Scott is proposing here. He wants the cuts to go even deeper. CBO found Scott's amendment would save another $313 billion [00:09:00] over ten years, according to his office. By the way this is a side note today the Trump administration approved another $510 million in weapons for Israel with no debate whatsoever. That's American taxpayer money funding bombs for a country that's currently carrying out a genocide in Gaza. [00:09:15] How many? Billions. Millions. 510 million. Now, that's not in the billions, but that comes on top of the tens of billions of dollars in weaponry that American taxpayers have been funding for Israel since the beginning of this genocide. Yeah, just real quick. [00:09:31] No debate on that. By the way. I heard you say that I wasn't sure what the number was, because if you don't know, over the last 12 months or so, we've given Israel another $30 billion. So they just the press almost never reports on it. And whenever you hear reports of, oh, how much does Israel get in aid, [00:09:49] they always say 3.8 billion. That's the standard that they get every year without these extra goodies that they throw in every once in a while. 20 million for Biden. 10 billion, I'm sorry, 10 billion from Trump and now another half a billion from Trump. They just keep like everything else you have to question oh children, [00:10:07] we're going to cut Medicaid. Snap. You're hungry. Your kid has cancer. Cut cut cut. Israel don't even question it. Don't even report on it. No debate, no debate, no nothing. If Israel asks, you must give the money, right? Everything else is negotiable, right? [00:10:23] And you're telling me that this is America first? Come on. Nobody believes that unless you're an idiot. Mainstream media reporter. Nobody thinks that Washington puts America first. Everybody knows Congress puts Israel first. Now, other Republicans in the Senate have tried to get their amendments passed [00:10:38] as well, including Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who's considered to be more moderate in the Republican Party. She's actually very concerned about the Medicaid cuts, as are a few other Republican senators, because they look at their states, they look at the high percentage of their own constituents [00:10:55] who rely on Medicaid, and they're worried about the political ramifications of cutting Medicaid so deeply. Collins filed an amendment that would double the stabilization fund for rural hospitals to $50 billion, and pay for it by adding a 39.6% tax bracket on [00:11:11] earners making above or over $25 million. Now, at least two Republican senators, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Rand Paul from the state of Kentucky, have said that they will not vote in favor of this legislation, as it currently stands. [00:11:27] Just for defections, by the way, would be enough to kill this bill. And as of right now, at least half a dozen Republican senators have remained undecided. Yeah, I think I know exactly. I think that most of them are probably going to bow their heads to Donald Trump, [00:11:43] who is bullying the Republicans in the Senate currently because he wants to get this bill passed as soon as possible so he can meet that self-imposed July 4th deadline. Senator John Fetterman, meanwhile, is basically just whining about having to do his job at all. [00:11:59] This is a Democrat, by the way, a guy who ran as a progressive, but he's anything but, he told reporters today. Oh my God, I just want to go home. You know, why don't you go home and stay home? He continues to say. I've already missed our entire trip to the beach. [00:12:15] I'm going to vote no. There's no drama. Well, at least he's going to vote no, which is kind of surprising. Maybe that's why they did the Israel thing separate. Yeah. So that Fetterman could. Be like, yes, yes, definitely yes to Israel. Okay. I'm shocked that he votes with Democrats at all on anything. [00:12:33] So final thing, Jake. As we mentioned earlier, this is a deeply unpopular Bill. And Harry Enten was mentioning that early on in the segment. I want you to hear more of what he found through the data. Take a look. Well, let's take a look at the net favorable rating on the big beautiful bill. I don't just got one poll for you, Omar. I got five of them. [00:12:51] And the net favorable rating? -19 points. Washington Post -20 points. Pew Research Center. Fox -21. Quinnipiac University -26 -29. The American public at this particular point. [00:13:07] Hate hate hate the big beautiful bill. Trump's policies and your family. Help or hurt the big beautiful bill? Just 23% say help. How about 49%? 49% say hurt. Look, that's a 26 point difference in the direction of hurt. [00:13:23] The American people elected Trump to help them and their families, but they see the big, beautiful bill as one that, on the whole, hurts their families. And you might be thinking, well, I mean, they're probably polling both Democrats and Republicans. Of course, Democrats aren't going to favor this legislation, but let's take a look at Republicans specifically. [00:13:40] How do Republican voters feel about this bill? And if you take a look at these polling results, you'll find that a whopping 64% find I'm sorry, let's let's go to okay. So 64% find it unfavorable in total. But if you go to Republicans, 36% find it unfavorable, 61% have a favorable view [00:14:00] of the legislation now among Republicans and Republican leaning independents. Among MAGA supporters, 72% find it favorable. But for non MAGA supporters, 66% find it unfavorable. So he might just be focusing on the fact that Republican voters, for the most part, [00:14:19] find this bill to be favorable. Yeah. So let me tell you all the downsides of it and why people don't like it. And then I'll tell you why it's going to pass and easily that all of this is fake drama. So, even -20, even 27% being opposed within MAGA is kind of a giant number. [00:14:37] So over a quarter of MAGA saying, no, I hate Donald Trump's so-called big beautiful bill. Well, to be fair, they didn't say hate. They just said they're not in support of it. Right. And then to me, the most important line is always the independents. The independents decide elections, period. Right. [00:14:54] So you can almost always ignore the Democrats or the Republicans on any given poll. Just look at the independents. So where do they come out? 70 to 27 against. That's a monster number. It's a monster. -43 -43 with independents. [00:15:10] So the American people hate this bill. So why do they hate it? I mean, look, all the reasons we just stated, but I'll just tell you two that are glaring. And when you look at the internal of the polling and they break it down by issues, these are in the bottom three for least popular. [00:15:27] Right. One is the $1.1 trillion tax cut that goes to people making above 500,000 a year. Right. So why are we adding over $1 trillion to the debt for no reason? I mean, do they really desperately need another trillion dollar tax cut? [00:15:43] So don't talk to me about balanced budgets. If you're going to give another 1.1 trillion to people making above 500,000. So people look at that and they go, oh, okay. So half of the Trump tax cuts are a giveaway to the top 1%. So that's just unbearable. [00:15:58] Okay, but that's terrible and you're adding to the debt. But then when you cut from Medicaid and Snap, by the way, Trump said he wasn't going to cut from Medicaid. Total utter lie. They're butchering Medicaid. So at least 800 billion on the House side now, over 1.1 trillion on Medicaid alone. [00:16:16] On the Senate side, okay. Because Rick Scott. Look, I didn't rob it enough when I was in private. You know, when I was at a private company, I'd like to rob it now as a senator. Right. And so, guys, they're going to kick off 12 million people from having health care. [00:16:32] They're going to get sick. They're going to need that health care, and then they're going to be enraged by the way half of those guys Trump voters. So I don't know what's going to happen after that. Are the Trump voters going to go, hey, you know what? My kid didn't need cancer treatment. [00:16:49] I'm happy I voted for Trump and these sons of bitch Republicans who took that away? Or are they going to be super pissed because they thought, oh no, no Trump, daddy's going to do it to others. Not to me, not to me. He's going to get the bad undocumented guys and the criminals. [00:17:07] Oh, he gave a giant tax cut for himself and for all of his donors and took it from me. Okay. My guess is that that catches up with you at some point. And I don't want to hear anything from Josh Hawley because Josh Hawley talked a big game hundred percent. Thank you for bringing him up. Josh Hawley is a fraud. [00:17:24] He's a fraud. Okay, a lot of tough talk during his Senate hearings where he pretends to be some sort of warrior on behalf of working class Americans, but when push comes to shove, he's going to do his donors a solid. He's going to do the business community a solid. He's going to do wealthy people, the wealthiest among us, a solid knowing that [00:17:43] this legislation is going to kick nearly 12 million Americans off of Medicaid. Medicaid, like literally the most vulnerable people on the planet, are the ones who are going to suffer the most, just so the wealthy can get more in tax breaks. They're literally going to rob the poor to pay the rich 100%. [00:18:01] - Literally, that's. - What this bill is as it. Stands today. That's why it's at -26, right? But none of that is going to matter. It's definitely going to pass. So I've been through this movie dozens of times where Republicans like Hawley and Ron Johnson will come out and go, I don't know, man. [00:18:20] This is going to add to the deficit. We better cut more from the poor and the middle. Class. But they never suggest, hey, maybe we shouldn't give another multi-trillion dollar tax cut to the rich. Never, never. Because they work for the rich, right? So at the end, you know what they do. They cut every single time. [00:18:37] They cut from the poor in the middle class. They pass and they add trillions to the debt. - Trillions every. - Time. Right. And this one will add at least 3.4 trillion to the debt. And then they'll say, oh yeah, later it'll trickle on you from the rich [00:18:52] and somehow, magically, it won't add to the debt, my ass. They're going to add another giant chunk of the debt because they're robbing you. It's this is the Republicans rob you every single time. If you ask me, why am I a Democrat when I get so frustrated with the Democratic [00:19:08] establishment time and time again, because the only thing Republicans get elected to do is to rob the middle class and the poor to pay their rich donors. That's the whole point of the existence of the Republican Party, if you don't know that, and I know a lot of you don't know that. Welcome to the country. Just look at the last 40 years of history. [00:19:26] That is literally the only thing they do other than start wars. Okay, so now you can say Trump is different, but this bill's the same goddamn bill that every establishment Republican has ever pushed. It's the same uniparty junk. And it's brought to you by Donald Trump, a wolf [00:19:44] in sheep's populist sheep's clothing. Every time you ring the bell below, an angel gets its wings. Totally not true, but it does keep you updated on our live shows.