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May 1, 2025

Is Trump's Ukraine Deal Any Good? The Answer Might Surprise You

The deal between the U.S. and Ukraine gives the U.S. rights to Ukrainian rare earth minerals,
  • 8 minutes
Don't tell us what we're going to feel. I'm not telling you because you're in no position to dictate that. Remember this. It appears certain that no deal could ever come after this. President Zelensky left, leaving the minerals deal on the table. Then came this surprise meeting. [00:00:15] Trump and Zelensky were meeting at the Pope's funeral last week. And today, Ukrainians have heard the warmest language Washington has spoken since President Trump came to power. After a long and tumultuous negotiation process, the United States and Ukraine [00:00:32] have officially signed a minerals deal that allows the U.S. To share future revenue from Ukraine's natural resources. Now, some are kind of trying to present this as a major loss for Donald Trump, since there were some important concessions that he made in getting this [00:00:49] deal signed, but I don't see it that way. I actually think this is better than what was initially agreed upon between the United States and Ukraine. And the reason why I say that is because Ukraine isn't going to be fleeced the way it would have if Donald Trump, you know, insisted [00:01:05] on the initial terms of the first deal. Now, the current deal was supposed to be signed all the way, or the initial deal, I should say, was supposed to be signed all the way back in February when Trump and Zelensky had that fiery Oval Office meeting where JD Vance, [00:01:20] unfortunately did not help the situation. And, you know, devolved further with his involvement. But Trump, in that conversation accused the Ukrainian president of being a dictator. Now, last month, the agreement, dubbed the United States Ukraine Reconstruction [00:01:36] Investment Fund, finally came to fruition. And it does create a U.S. Controlled investment fund that would receive revenue from Ukraine's vast natural resources. Right now. So I'm curious, before I get to the deal, the deal itself and the terms [00:01:51] within that deal, what your thoughts are. So I hated that we were trying to randomly rob the Ukrainians of their natural resources before we agreed to help them broker a ceasefire and negotiations with Russia. And we made that our top priority. First we got to get paid. [00:02:09] And one of those precious minerals is lithium, which goes into batteries in Tesla. Right. So we've made a deal. But now I think I might be pretty happy with it. So I'll tell you why after you get the details. Okay. Perfect. So just to give you a few details about the deal itself. [00:02:26] Ukraine controls more than 100 major deposits of critical minerals. And that's according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics, along with modest oil and natural gas reserves. So that's what Donald Trump has been eyeing. And what you're about to hear are some of the more, you know, [00:02:44] granular details about the deal itself. Let's take a look. It centers on US access to Ukraine's vast resources under its soil that includes oil and gas, but along with critical raw materials, that's like graphite, titanium and uranium for aerospace and technology. [00:03:00] Funds from this deal would go towards paying the U.S. For future military aid, and to establish a joint fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine. So you get a sense of how Donald Trump made some concessions, concessions based on what was said in that video, that CBS report. [00:03:18] Now it is significantly watered down from what Trump originally was demanding. So, for instance, he was initially demanding $500 billion, or a $500 billion share of Ukraine's rare earths and other minerals in exchange for military aid that we've provided to Kyiv. [00:03:36] But this deal actually gives no guarantees of profit. On top of that, he also said that he wanted Ukraine. He wanted Ukraine to use its mineral wealth to repay the United States for military aid that has already been given to Ukraine. [00:03:52] However, he has reneged on that right, or he is no longer insisting on that the minerals deal will help pay the United States for future military investment into Ukraine, or help help for Ukraine to, beat off or defend itself against Russia. [00:04:08] But there's more. So, Although the agreement does not treat past aid to Ukraine as debt that the country needs to repay, it does say that future military aid, including weapons and training, will be treated as a U.S. Contribution to the fund, meaning that Ukraine will need [00:04:24] to match future aid with resource wealth. And in a post on telegram, Ukraine's prime minister wrote that the two countries would have equal voting rights over the fund and that Ukraine would retain full control over its subsoil [00:04:40] infrastructure and natural resources. So this agreement also also appears to keep open the possibility for Ukraine to join the European Union. But look, we have to also be clear about one thing. [00:04:56] This deal really means nothing if Donald Trump can't convince Vladimir Putin to end the war. And right now, there is no indication that Putin and Russia have any intention to end the war. So it really does hinge on Russia. [00:05:12] However, before I go to you, Jake, I just want to note that Trump has changed his rhetoric a little bit when it comes to Russia. I want to show you that video after we hear from Jake. Yeah. So look on this deal. The devil's in the details. [00:05:28] And so CNN is reporting that it it doesn't really have bite that it's going to be many decades from now when they're actually extracting those minerals and that there's enough leeway in the deal for the Ukrainians to be able to basically change the terms, [00:05:45] get out of it, etc.. If that's true, then it's a face saving measure for Trump, and we're moving forward to actually dealing with the cease fire. - That would be great news. - Okay I agree. So if it turns out we really are holding them hostage and taking their, you know, [00:06:04] state and natural resources, etc., let's be honest, that would be America 101, right? And we're back to doing that kind of nonsense for Trump and his donors, etc.. But but if if the reporting is accurate, it's vague enough deal [00:06:20] and we move forward. Great that I'm super happy with it. Now, there's no mention of a US security guarantee in the text of the deal. However, as I mentioned earlier, the Trump administration appears to have changed its rhetoric a little bit as it pertains to Russia. So let me give you a little taste of that. [00:06:37] Today's agreement signals clearly to Russian leadership that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine over the long term. It's time for this cruel and senseless war to end. [00:06:55] The killing must stop and look. There are a lot of kinks that still need to be worked out, including the fact that Ukraine's parliament still has to ratify the agreement. But I think the good news here is that Trump has kind of backed off [00:07:12] of this idea of essentially fleecing Ukraine with nothing in return. - That was the initial plan. - Yes. There's a couple other good things, by the way. Let's note that Elon Musk is on his way out of the white House, and all of a sudden the middle's become less important. [00:07:28] Okay. So I don't know that those are connected, but it is an interesting note. All right. Now, there are parts in the deal that, clearly say Russian aggression and how the Ukrainians would buy weapons from the U.S. And that money from the fund would be used to pay for those. [00:07:45] So that is, in writing the U.S. Saying the Russians are the bad guys and we might sell more weapons to the Ukrainians. So that's the second piece of good news here, because that's basically Trump administration saying, Vladimir, stop. Okay. So that's what he wrote in a Truth Social post. [00:08:02] And this is him actually carrying that out, which is much more important than a Truth Social post, right? So I wonder if that creates enough leverage to get Putin to reenter the negotiations in a serious way. If it does, terrific. Every time you ring the bell below, an angel gets its wings. [00:08:19] Totally not true, but it does keep you updated on our live shows.