We've seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump's direction. So you would think his core group, his base of support would be doing the same, but in fact, it's moving a little bit away from him. CNN's Harry Enten has revealed that Donald Trump is actually losing some support [00:00:18] within one of the most important demographics in his base. Now, let's watch Enten describe or explain who exactly these voters are. So this is Trump's margin with non-college white voters. Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him. [00:00:35] It's actually moving slightly away. So you go back eight years ago we won it by 33. You go back four years ago. He won them by 31. Now what we look is we see that in the latest average of polls. He's only up by 27. Now, that may not seem like a lot, but given that we're seeing [00:00:51] these double digit gains, say, among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well. [00:01:06] I think that's a rather interesting development. So according to the average of polling, it indicates that compared to 2016, Donald Trump has about 6% less support from non-college educated white voters. [00:01:25] And so that's a pretty big deal. Entin also explained why that small change could actually make a pretty big difference or impact on this election. Let's take a look. Non-college white voters make up 40% of the electorate. That's more than college whites at 29%. All other groups, voters of color at 28%. [00:01:44] So this is something that we've seen throughout the board, right? Which is that Donald Trump is making huge gains with groups that make up a smaller percentage of the electorate, while he's losing a little bit. But these groups that he's losing a little bit of make up a much larger portion of the electorate. But more than that, you know, we're talking about the US of A, [00:02:00] where they make up 40%. Why don't you go to those key Great Lakes battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They have outsized import in those Great Lakes battleground states. Non-college white voters look at this. They make up the slim majority of voters at 51%, way more than college whites at 30%, way more than all other voters at 16%. [00:02:21] So if you're seeing movement in the Great Lakes battleground states among non-college whites, that could be a very big development. John, are. We seeing movement in the battleground states among non-college whites? Nothing quite like a leading question, my dear friend. Yes we are. We're seeing the same pattern in the Great Lakes battleground states [00:02:38] that we're seeing nationally. That is small movement among non-college white voters. And there's additional potential good news for the Harris campaign. There's, for instance, some of the data that recently came out [00:02:54] in the New York Times Siena College poll. This is from earlier in the month. They found that Harris is leading by two points among those 65 and older, with 49% support to Trump's 47%. Just last month, the same poll showed Trump leading seniors by six points, [00:03:12] with 52% to Harris's 46%. Over 70% of voters 65 and older said they were almost certain to cast a ballot this November, according to the Times Siena poll. And that's important to keep in mind as well. [00:03:29] One of the most loyal, loyal to the electoral process tend to be older voters. They turn up to vote. They're consistent about that. And so ensuring that you have additional support from that demographic could really help Kamala Harris in this very tight race. [00:03:47] Yeah, there's tons of good news, bad news here. And given that the last couple of weeks we've mainly had bad news, I'll take it that it's mixed. So let's break it down a little bit. First of all, the one of the pieces of bad news is that, [00:04:02] a lot of Democrats think that it's okay. At the end of the day, we'll win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin because those are blue states. Are they? Because they were blue states before and but Trump did win some of them in 2016. [00:04:19] So how blue are they? Why were they blue states in the past? Because you had a lot of non-college educated white voters who worked in manufacturing, and that was blue collar base of the Democrats, [00:04:34] but they're not the base anymore. So now a lot of them have moved to Trump. And that's why those three theoretically blue wall states, Trump is leading in all three right now. So they might be small leads. It's too close to call. But they are. [00:04:50] But he is slightly leading, so they're not as blue as you think they are. Exactly. For that reason. Now, the great news though is he's slipping in that category. That is very unexpected and great news. Okay. And the fact that he's losing now among senior citizens who vote the most 65 [00:05:08] and above, That's a bit shocking and great news because that's a category that Republicans normally win. But obviously they're concerned. My guess is that they're and my guess is based on the polling information that we are seeing, is that they're concerned about this 2020 election madness. [00:05:26] And they're they're old school Americans. And as much as some of them have drifted to Trump for, different reasons and, and, and being frustrated with the Democratic Party, when they hear somebody talking about terminating the Constitution, it makes them uncomfortable. Yeah, totally. And when they hear about this fake elector scheme and how he was going to replace [00:05:45] the real electors with his fraudulent electors and pretend he won, that makes them uncomfortable. And so that's the thing that the Democrats, to their credit, have focused on. And that's the thing I've focused on. And I agree with Democratic leaders on that strategy, because it's a kind [00:06:03] of a big deal if you want to terminate the Constitution and cheat and steal an election, that's not a little thing. That's a gigantic thing. So I have a question for you because as we all know, you know, the Democratic Party overall, not just in this presidential election, [00:06:18] but they have been kind of beating the drums in regard to Donald Trump wanting to be a dictator, how he's a threat to our democracy. But I have also noticed an interesting, contradictory, like pivot with the Harris Wallace campaign and their messaging on Trump, [00:06:34] because now they're trying to paint him as someone who's old, exhausted, you know, he's skipping out on various interviews, like the interview with 60 minutes. Oh, he can't do it because he doesn't have the stamina. Oh, he's got dementia. [00:06:51] And so I don't know if they're helping their cause by pivoting to that messaging, because I see those two messages as really conflicting with one another. - But what are your thoughts? - That's interesting. I'm not sure that a lot of people are going to make the connection, that they're conflicting. They're trying to get some people with, you know, [00:07:08] we're worried about his mental stability and dementia, which I agree with. And then we're worried about him being able to pull off some sort of coup like he tried last time. And remember, he doesn't. You don't need Trump to do it. It's not like Trump came up with the idea. Navarro and Eastman and Bannon and those [00:07:25] guys came up with the idea to do the fake electors instead of the real electors, when the real electors wouldn't go along with this plot to steal the election. So you don't need Trump to be competent. And he never was. So I'm not overly worried about that. Now, guys, there are there is more bad news, but there's one piece of news [00:07:41] that I think will pretty much determine the election. We'll see if I'm right. So on the bad news, yeah, they the American people are in a draconian mood on immigration. So sometimes people on the left try to wish things like this away. But when you see the polling, you have to be cognizant of it [00:07:58] and figure out how to adjust, because deporting people is now popular. Sending the army and the military to the border is now very popular. And so we can find a way to to try to defeat those policy goals. But we have to be aware of it. [00:08:13] If we're trying to win an election, it doesn't mean you go towards that, right? But it means you find a way around that. And so the other thing that's bad is drill, baby drill. So I hate it. It's Trump saying that the oil companies, you could do whatever you want as long as you give me a donation. But it works with the American people because they're worried about gas prices. [00:08:31] So that's working, right? So that's the bad news. We'll get to more details in a second. But to me, the good news is they want to change candidate. And at least for now by a little bit, they think Kamala Harris is the change candidate. [00:08:46] Woo. That's huge. If she can keep that to the end that might push her over the top because they want a change. People are not happy with how things are today. Right. So but there's one critical number in here that Anna's going to read you guys. And I'm going to come back and focus on that I think [00:09:02] could make all the difference. So NBC news did their own survey and they didn't ask about either party. They wanted to specifically ask about issues. What issues are they prioritizing and factoring into their decision making [00:09:17] when it comes to this election. And the results are actually fascinating. And it kind of speaks to what Jake was referring to in regard to drilling and immigration. So let's take a look at this graph. So 67% are more likely to support a candidate that would expand domestic oil [00:09:35] and natural gas production. 64% who participated in this survey are more likely to support a candidate that would institute a federal child tax credit of $6, 000. And so let's talk about that a little bit, because both parties, [00:09:52] both candidates in this case have proposed a child tax credit. And former President Donald Trump's campaign is proposing a $5,000 per child yearly tax credit. Kamala Harris's plan is, in my opinion, strange. [00:10:08] I don't know why she went with this, but she is apparently proposing a credit of up to $3,600 per child with a bump to $6,000, but only for children up to one year old. Yeah, I don't know why that delineation exists. I'm sure some bureaucrat came up with it because. [00:10:25] Get rid of the bureaucrats, right? But but bottom line is there's one party that has shown that they are in favor of the child tax credit, and another one that hasn't. And so the Democrats did pass the child tax credit for one year. Now, if you watch The Young Turks, we were livid that they didn't continue it [00:10:44] because it was a incredibly popular, as you're seeing in the numbers here, and be incredibly effective. It cut child poverty rates by half. It was a relatively inexpensive way of making sure that kids in America [00:10:59] don't go hungry at night. It was a great program. That is why we say go populist, go help the average American politics. Isn't that complicated? Yeah, right. You give them a child tax credit, they like it. I know. But it is complicated when the desires of voters [00:11:17] conflict with the desires of donors. And that is, look, that is the reason why the Democratic Party is finding itself in a difficult position as it pertains to beating someone like Donald Trump, because they know what works. They know what's popular. Okay. The party of FDR used to have very little problems in terms of beating a Republican [00:11:36] candidate with an economic populist message, because the Democratic Party used to consist of economic populists. But in the age of unlimited campaign donations to super PACs. Well, let's keep it real. The Democrats got high off that money. [00:11:51] They don't want to give that money up. Kamala Harris has raised $1 billion in this election cycle, and everyone is celebrating it like it's this big accomplishment, a big achievement. But remember that money from donors conflicts with what the Democratic voters want. [00:12:06] So if you are frustrated as a Democratic voter for consistently getting out the vote, doing your job, doing what's necessary to canvass for the Democratic candidate, ensuring that that individual wins, but you're frustrated because they don't keep their side of the deal. There is a very real, very real reason for that. [00:12:24] And I don't know what Democrats are going to do moving forward. But that conflict is growing bigger and bigger and bigger. And they can't just lean into identity politics or shaming in order to win elections anymore. People are getting sick of that. They want to see results. So that leads us to, I think, the most important topic [00:12:41] that could decide this election. But just to complete my thought. Trump is not going to do a child tax credit. It's a total lie. He never went anywhere near that direction in his first term. The Republicans are the ones who voted it down after the first year of the child tax credit. The Republicans will only help the rich and corporations. [00:12:58] Every populist idea they have is totally fraudulent. They've never done it. They've never taken one step in that direction. Now let's get to the to the one that I'm referring to. I'm quoting NBC news here. 61% say they are more likely to back a candidate, [00:13:15] quote, who wants to help control inflation by taxing large corporations that are making record profits. Now, when, Kamala Harris first came out, she said, I'm going to go after those [00:13:30] corporations making record profits. If they're doing price gouging, I'm going to go after them. Boom! She skyrockets in the polling goes from Biden being eight down to her being five up nationally. Then she turns around and says, Mark Cuban, to do every interview, [00:13:45] telling everybody, don't worry, I'm not doing any of that big business. I support big business more than Joe Biden. I support big business more than anyone else. Here's 90 corporate CEOs who wrote a letter saying I'm the biggest big business friendly person that she is. Boom! The polling goes nosedive down. [00:14:01] She went from five up, which is in fact she got to six up, which is enough to win and to win because you have to be at least four and a half points up to win in a nationally to win the election in the Electoral College. Now she's back to tied at the national level and losing in every swing state. The answer is obvious. The American people are telling you. [00:14:19] Remember, it's not 61 versus 39. The opposite side is actually tiny. There's a whole bunch of undecideds. Almost no one is in favor of big business if they're making record profits. The American people are saying, get them under control so they stop inflation. [00:14:37] She had it right in the beginning. That's why we praised her. And she turned around. And she's losing because she went to go help the donors instead of the voters. It's not that complicated. But you can't talk sense to Democratic leaders. - All they see is cash. - They're like, we raised the most money. [00:14:54] Yeah, but did you win the election? Remember the means and the ends. Those are supposed to get you to the end of winning the election. If it costs you the election, what the hell was the point of raising $1 billion from your corporate friends? Hey, thanks for watching the video. [00:15:09] We really appreciate it, guys, and we appreciate it if you become members, because that allows us to be independent, honest, progressive, all the things that you don't get from corporate media and all of that is because of you guys. Hit the join button below and become one of us. Become a young Turk.