This is about the Electoral College, right? So let's take a look at the average margin nationally. Harris is ahead in the average poll by 2.5 points. But look at those seven key battleground states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris is only ahead by 0.3 points. [00:00:17] So the bottom line is, in those seven key battleground states, it's a significantly tighter race than it is nationally. Harry Enten is right. The election does come down to the battleground states. And based on his aggregate of the polls, Kamala Harris is still neck and neck [00:00:36] with Donald Trump when it comes to the very states that she would need to win in order to win the presidential election. But we do have some additional good news based on some of the more recent polling, especially the poll that came out by Morning Consult. Before we get to those details, though. Here's more from Harry Enten. [00:00:54] Once you have to get all the way north to about 3 to 4 points for Harris to have a clear. Clear. Clear chance. The majority, the clear majority chance of winning the Electoral College if she only wins by less than two. Look at that. Only at 23% chance of winning right now. Harris is right now in that danger zone where basically about half the time, [00:01:13] given that popular vote margin nationally, she would win. And so here's the situation. Chance Harris wins the popular vote at this point is about 70%. But the chance she wins the Electoral College is only about 50%. So this is a point that you make repeatedly on the show that look, okay, [00:01:31] you can look at the national polling, but the Democrat would have to win by five points in order to win the presidential election overall because of how the Electoral College works. Right? So that's what he's explaining there. And when it comes to the Electoral college, that's where the battleground [00:01:48] states are incredibly important, especially the state of Pennsylvania. We're going to get to where Harris and Trump are at when it comes to Pennsylvania in just a moment. But according to the latest Morning Consult poll, let's take a look at the graphic here it shows that among likely voters, 51% plan to vote for Harris, [00:02:07] while only 45% plan to vote for Trump. That is a six point lead for Harris, which is great when you consider the fact that the lead is outside the two point margin of error for the morning console poll. Hey, don't scroll away. Come back, come back. Because before the video continues, we just want to urge you [00:02:25] to lend your support to TYT. You power our honest reporting. You do it at t.com/team and we love you for it. That's the second poll in a row where she has a six point lead. So there's where the polls are as a collective. And then there's the momentum of the polls. [00:02:41] Why does the momentum matter. Because the election day is the day where you have the main vote that counts also, by the way, mail in voting. So my point is that it's if you take the old polls and average them with the new polls, you might come out at two and a half. [00:02:57] But if all the new polls are showing six, that means she's more likely to be around 5 or 6 points up, so you can't. If it was just one outlier poll, I'd say no, no, no. Go back to the average. The average is more reliable. But when you have several polls that come out at the same time, [00:03:14] all with a similar number, that means that the so-called momentum is real, right? So there's a lot more to this. There's two things that I would disagree with his percentages on based on my political experience. I think the chance of Kamala Harris winning the popular vote, especially with these new polls coming out, there's a giant wild card. [00:03:30] I'll get to the wild card at the end, but if there's no wild card, the chance of her winning the popular vote is sky high 95%. I mean, I would be shocked if she didn't win the popular vote, right? But in this country, we don't really have a democracy. So we have an electoral college left over from hundreds of years ago. [00:03:49] That makes no sense at all. So in order to win the Electoral College, he says if she has a 3 to 4 point lead, then she has an 80% chance of winning the electoral college. I don't think that's true. Joe Biden won the popular vote by A 4.5% and almost lost the Electoral College. [00:04:05] He only won the Electoral College by 43,000 votes in three swing states. So you have to get the four and a half and then you're not even comfortable, right? At that point, you could still lose. I mean, I got it I mean, at 43,000 votes is 50 over 50. So you got to get the five to begin to feel comfortable at 3 to 4 point lead. [00:04:24] It's not enough. Well, I mean, I think that she should rest easy in knowing that Trump seems to be hell bent on helping her do that. I mean, with the crazy things that he's been doing and saying recently. But let's get to some more details about this Morning Consult poll, because, you know, it's not just about the swing states either. [00:04:41] It's also about where independent voters are in regard to the two candidates here. And the independent voters seem to favor Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in this poll. So if you take a look at it, it'll show that 47% of the independent voters backed [00:05:00] Harris, while only 41% backed Trump. Another 6% of independents say that they prefer someone else. But what does the aggregate of the polls say? So in the Hill Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls, Harris boasts a three [00:05:16] point advantage over Trump, 49.6% to former the former president's 46.2%. Now, Kamala also enjoys an advantage when it comes to favorability, so the same Morning Consult poll shows that likely [00:05:33] voters favor her 59% over Trump's 44%. But the poll also found that Trump boasts 18% of the black vote, while Kamala garners 78%. So clearly, Kamala Harris has a much bigger lead when it comes [00:05:49] to the black vote compared to Trump. But 18% is really nothing to scoff at when it comes to the black vote. So he still is appealing to more black voters than he has in previous election cycles. Yeah, so he has, in fact, increased support among some black voters. [00:06:06] - Now go ahead. - Yeah. So I just wanted to say there's another troubling sign. So the fact that she has not been able to get back most of the black vote. It should be around 10% historically. Not that it should be as a matter of philosophy, but it normally is is my point. [00:06:23] Right. So Trump is still doing better with black voters than he than the Republicans have historically. But she has improved it a little bit since entering the race as opposed to Biden. Right. But also with younger voters 18 to 34 year olds, Biden had lost the lead, [00:06:41] which is unreal. I mean, that was one of the reasons why I told you he has absolutely no chance of winning. You can't have a Republican win younger voters and win the Electoral College. It's impossible. Right. So Kamala Harris has picked up a significant lead among younger voters, [00:06:57] 56 to 41. 15 points sounds solid, but normally Democrats win that category by a larger margin. So I'm still worried. There's young, some of the younger voters are starting to be conservative and we're losing them. And so they're still on our side. [00:07:14] Still 15 point lead. But tik tik tik tik. The Democrats keep doing wrong things, and they continue to be in trouble in this category. And it could cost them the election. Remember, Joe Biden won the election barely last time around, and that was because of an 11% increase in youth voting. [00:07:33] That's what put him over the top. If younger voters don't come out or vote for Trump, then we're in a world of trouble. So let's let's speculate a little bit because you just said, you know, Democrats keep doing the wrong thing. Like, what do you think the Democratic Party is doing wrong? [00:07:50] That oh that's easy. Yeah. - Go ahead. - Yeah. Because whenever I talk to younger voters, you go on social media, you go in real life, etc. And have hundreds, maybe thousands of times I've listened to people, explain what their number one issue is. And the number one issue is they're starting to lose hope. And so when they look around, they go, My God, I can't afford a house. [00:08:09] It's impossible. Impossible. And then they talk to their parents and they're like, oh my God, it was so easy to get a house 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago, right? I mean, there's people who bought houses that we talked to on the air in like Northern and Southern California for $37,000. Now those houses are literally worth two, $2.5 million, right? [00:08:27] So impossible. The wages are not going up like they're supposed to. They don't have health care. They don't know where to turn. And so they know the Republicans, most of them know Republicans are not here to help them. They're here to do corporate tax cuts, etc. But when they turn to the Democrats and have dare to have a little bit [00:08:43] of hope, the Democrats let them down every single time. They never do anything about those core issues. They just give them a lot of false promises, and then they rub it in their face. And national media helps them do this afterwards. And when they go, Biden was was Franklin Roosevelt. [00:09:01] He gave you guys so much, oh my God, how can you not be thankful for all the things that Biden has given you, and then that gets under the skin of a lot of younger voters. And then since mainstream media has taught them it's a binary world. [00:09:17] You're either for Biden or Trump, Kamala Harris or Trump, Republicans or Democrats. They go, well, I know the Democrats screwed me. So I guess I'm for Trump, right? I guess I'm for Republicans because they haven't gotten screwed by them enough yet. They will. And they did under Trump. They got the corporate tax cuts got screwed. [00:09:33] Not one piece of help under Trump for younger voters. But that was four years ago. And remember, they're young voters. A lot of them are finding out about politics and learning about politics right now. They don't have a 20, 40, 50 year history. So that is why the Democrats are in trouble with the younger voters [00:09:49] because they never deliver. Yeah. Okay. So I want to go to the swing states real quick. So by the way, I agree with everything that you just said. I can't help it, but I got to mention one other thing. So Ken Klippenstein, posted this on his social media. [00:10:07] I'm going to paraphrase it because I didn't expect to bring it up, but you should go to his socials to see the exact wording of Josh Shapiro's insane post about how he has accomplished real freedom by helping the alcohol [00:10:23] industry and making bottled not, I'm sorry, canned cocktails available at gas stations and convenience stores all throughout Pennsylvania. Freedom. That's real freedom. Like, we don't. We don't care. We don't care about the like. They're enjoyable. Okay. [00:10:41] But like when Democrats refer to stuff like that as real freedom. Yeah, it's a little infuriating. Yeah. Among a thousand other things. And we've got. Bigger fish to fry. All right. We're not that concerned about canned cocktails. And and look, guys, if you're in Washington, [00:10:57] they're enraged watching this video. They're going, what do you mean? Joe Biden did student debt relief for 10% of the people who had student debt? Yeah that's great. And whenever anybody emails it or writes in a message about that to us and they're a member or whoever they might be, [00:11:13] I tell them you should vote for Joe Biden because or in this case now, Kamala Harris, because they did something for you. But remember, that means they didn't do something for 90% of people with student debt. And so, like people in Washington go, we did 10% help. [00:11:30] And you people are still ungrateful and but real people go, do you think I'm supposed to give you a standing ovation? Over 10% change. We need universal programs that lift everyone up. Okay. Like, I think one of the biggest mistakes that Democrats have made [00:11:48] in recent years, slash decades, is rather than approaching economic issues in a way that universally improves the conditions for everyone, they do these like little piecemeal programs that don't even accomplish [00:12:03] what they're trying to accomplish. For the very specific group that they're trying to help. And so universal programs are usually harder to repeal. They enjoy more popularity because everyone benefits from it like anyway. [00:12:18] So Social Security and Medicare. Exactly, exactly. All those things. That are intensely popular that were done by Democrats, by the way, back when they were the actual Democratic Party. Right. It's like when the Republicans say they're the party of Lincoln, brother. That was a long time ago. And you guys flip flopped on that. [00:12:35] And the same thing with the Democrats. We're the party of FDR. Are you? Because you haven't been in a long, long time. Yeah. And I think people are realizing that. And you hear a lot of talk about, you know, the party's realigning and how, oh, the Republican Party is more representative of the working class. [00:12:51] And when you look at the demographics voting for Republicans versus Democrats, it is true that working class Americans are more likely to vote for Republicans now. But while they might use populist rhetoric, you also have to dig a little deeper and see what they actually do. [00:13:07] What are their policies? And their policies usually center on things like additional tax cuts for corporations and more deregulation, which I don't know if you guys have noticed, there's a lot of food recalls happening because of the lack of regulations in our food industry. [00:13:24] So I don't know when the next listeria outbreak is going to happen, but probably next week. So deregulation makes sense in some cases, for sure, don't get me wrong, but there are important regulations pertaining to the food we eat, the air we breathe, the water we drink, that Republicans are far too happy [00:13:42] to repeal or get rid of. Yeah, I'm gonna do one pet peeve. And then the caveat, I promise you guys for Kamala Harris now leading significantly. So despite the problems that we were just talking about. So one is that, remember when I was telling you a year ago that, hey, you got [00:13:59] to have a 4 to 5 point lead, nationally in order to win the Electoral College. And no one in mainstream media was talking about it. And they were all saying like, oh, Joe Biden is leading by one, losing by one, losing by three. Not that big a deal. No one. No one said that he had to win by 3 to 5 points right now [00:14:17] that Biden is conveniently out of the way. National media just realized, oh, it turns out the Democrat has to win by 3 to 5 points. And then why? Because now you got to get people out to vote. So now remind them that it's 3 to 5 points. You got to win by before you want to keep Biden in the race. [00:14:32] Shh. Don't tell anyone. 3 to 5. It's not that there's a memo written. It's it's groupthink. They all think the same way. Don't insult people in power. Don't insult Biden. Corporate politicians are awesome, etc.. Now, the important caveat if a war breaks out, which looks imminent [00:14:51] in the Middle East, Israel with a very aggressive strike in Lebanon today, that is definitely going to get a counter strike, every American security official is saying. But it has left Hezbollah with no choice but a significant retaliatory strike. [00:15:06] If that happens, all bets are off. You have no idea what's going to happen. Kamala Harris could even lose the popular vote. Or she might win by more. I have no idea. And no one does, because that will that will mix up this entire race completely. [00:15:21] - They'll just redo the jigsaw puzzle. - All right. So real quick, because I promised it in Pennsylvania, according to the latest USA Today Suffolk University Suffolk University poll, Harris is leading 49% to Trump's 46%. This is only one poll. [00:15:38] So obviously you should look at the aggregate of polling. But it does show that Harris is continuing in this positive momentum. And let's go to the last graphic here because this is the real Clear Politics aggregate of polls that looks at the battleground states. [00:15:54] And it's really a mixed bag. I think that, you know, in states like Nevada and Wisconsin, Harris is doing well. But when it comes to states like, Arizona, Nevada. Yeah. Arizona. Pennsylvania. Yeah. [00:16:10] - Pennsylvania. - North Carolina, which are winnable. They're winnable. So it's close. But this is the aggregate of polling. And it does show that the race is still incredibly close. Yeah. So one last thing on Real Clear Politics. They include Rasmussen, which they really shouldn't. [00:16:26] Real Clear Politics leans conservative. Rasmussen is ridiculously unreliable conservative polling organization. So those numbers are a tiny bit better for Kamala Harris than they look. But overall, you see how close it is. Yep. So no one knows what's going to happen. This is as close as it gets. [00:16:44] Thanks for watching The Young Turks. Really appreciate it. Another way to show support is through YouTube memberships. You'll get to interact with us more. There's live chat emojis, badges. You've got emojis of me Anna John Jr. So those are super fun. But you also get playback of our exclusive member only shows [00:17:04] and specials right after they air. So all of that, all you got to do is click that join button right underneath the video. Thank you.