Nov 6, 2023
TERRIFYING Poll Shows Biden Trailing Trump In THESE 5 Battleground States
Americans are hurting economically, and polls in battleground states are showing President Joe Biden's unfavourability on economic issues.
- 17 minutes
The New York Times and Siena College.
It shows that Donald Trump
is leading Nevada in Nevada, Georgia,
Arizona and Michigan tight races
in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
How worried are you about
the president's reelection campaign?
[00:00:16]
I was concerned before these polls,
and I'm concerned now.
You just heard from a prominent Democrat
in Congress who is concerned about
the chances of President Joe Biden winning
reelection, and he should have been
concerned for quite some time already.
[00:00:31]
However, a startling new poll
shows Trump is, in fact leading Biden
in five key battleground states
for the 2024 presidential election.
Now, even some of the hard core
establishment Democrats are starting
[00:00:46]
to come out in the public and vocalize
their concerns, as you just heard.
And we'll get back to that
in just a moment.
But first, why don't we get to the details
of this new New York Times
Siena College poll, which was published
exactly one year out of Election Day.
[00:01:02]
So if you take a look at this chart,
it'll show you exactly
what we're talking about here.
So Trump leads Biden 52% to 41%,
in Nevada, 49% to 43% in Georgia,
49% to 44% in Arizona,
48% to Biden's, 43% in Michigan
[00:01:20]
and 48% to Biden's 44% in Pennsylvania,
which is within the margin of error.
But that is the only state
within the margin of error.
Then you have Wisconsin,
the only battleground state where Biden is
polling higher at 47% to Trump's 44%.
[00:01:38]
And that's also actually well
within the margin of error,
which, you know, is concerning.
So the sampling error is
between 4.4 and 4.8 points.
And if Trump were to win by the margins
that are represented in the surveys
[00:01:55]
published just this past Sunday, what you
just saw, he would get more than 300
electoral college votes and easily win the
presidential election, according to CNN.
Across these six battleground states,
registered voters give Biden
[00:02:10]
low job approval marks 38% approve,
with just 19% describing the economy
as excellent or good.
At the same time, only 42% in these states
rate Trump favorably,
similar to Biden's 41% favorability rating
now registered voters.
[00:02:30]
This poll, of course, has to do with
likely voters how they're likely to vote.
And I do think it's interesting
to see the consistency
across these types of polls, which show
that Biden's low favorability really ties
into how Americans feel about the economy.
[00:02:48]
They think about inflation,
they think about gas prices.
They don't think about
what impacts gas prices, or the fact
that Biden actually has very little impact
on keeping gas prices low.
It really has to do with oil production
in the OPEC plus cartel.
[00:03:05]
But aside from that, a lot of Americans
are struggling economically.
And I do think that Biden has had a number
of missteps, including the urgency
in which he addressed the American people
and demanded $106 billion
in war funding for other countries,
when he knows full well that the American
[00:03:23]
people, you know, working class citizens
are struggling right now.
At the same time, you have a very real
migrant crisis, which maybe for the first
time, isn't just impacting border towns,
it's also impacting a lot of these,
you know, Democratic strongholds
in these big blue cities.
[00:03:39]
And so Biden hasn't really
addressed that appropriately.
And voters are starting to get
incredibly frustrated as a result.
So registered voters in these six states,
according to this New York Times
Siena College poll, give Trump the edge
over Biden in trust to handle the economy,
[00:03:59]
immigration, national security
and the Israeli-palestine conflict.
They actually think Trump
would have done a much better job in
handling this conflict than Joe Biden has.
So while Joe Biden is trying
to present himself as this strong leader
[00:04:15]
who is really going out of his way
to defend Israel, it's really not playing
out so well for him here at home.
A lot of Democratic voters are not
very happy with his handling of that,
especially because they see
the images coming out of Gaza.
They see the high civilian death toll,
and they want the violence to stop.
[00:04:33]
Then they turn to Biden
to see what he's saying.
They turn to Anthony Blinken
to see what he's saying.
And it's just wall to wall administration
officials saying that Israel
has the right to defend itself.
We are not going to tell them
to engage in a cease fire.
[00:04:48]
We might gently nudge
toward a humanitarian pause, which they've
now rebranded as a tactical pause.
But the American people aren't buying it,
and it's clear that even.
When it comes to that issue.
The majority of voters think that Trump
would do a better job than Biden.
[00:05:05]
Now, the voters say that they do trust
Biden more than Trump on two issues.
The first is abortion,
which I'm very curious to see
whether it will kind of carry Democrats
through this upcoming election.
[00:05:20]
It certainly helped Democrats
during the midterms, but voters might
be thinking about other issues
by the time we hit the general election.
They also think that Biden would do better
with closing the split on like,
handling democracy,
making sure to protect democracy.
[00:05:36]
So with that said, let's take a look
at the next chart, because it'll give you
some more interesting details
about how American voters
are feeling about the two candidates.
When asked
whether Trump and Biden are too old.
A whopping 71% said
that Biden was too old,
with only 39% saying the same of Trump.
[00:05:54]
Now Trump is up there in age as well.
But if you see the speaking styles
of the two candidates here, it's very
obvious that Trump is more charismatic.
He's more energetic, for better or worse,
whereas Biden tends to look into the
camera as if he's squinting into the sun
and speaks slowly, seems tired.
[00:06:13]
In fact, sometimes even says that he's
tired and he's ready to go to bed,
not playing out so well for him.
66% said that Biden doesn't have the
mental sharpness needed to be president,
compared to 44% who said the same of Trump
[00:06:31]
and 55% said Trump does not have
the temperament to be president,
while 51% said the same of Biden.
And honestly, that tracks that.
Trump tends to get fiery, salty, angry.
He tends to throw tantrums.
[00:06:47]
Biden seems calm,
but also incredibly sleepy.
Now, Biden's margin of support
among nonwhite voters under the age of 45
has actually plummeted,
and this is the most damning result,
in my opinion, from the poll.
[00:07:03]
Because, remember, Biden barely won
in some of those battleground states
in 2020, and it was the young vote
that turned up to save Biden.
That might not happen this time around.
So Biden's margin of support
among nonwhite voters under 45
[00:07:20]
has plummeted from 39 in 2020 to just six,
according to this latest survey.
But most concerning of all is his shedding
of support among those young voters.
So voters under 30 favor Biden
by only a single percentage point.
[00:07:37]
Okay, so let's put that graphic up.
I'll go ahead and read that because it
conveys really important information here.
So voters under 30
said they trusted Trump.
More on the economy by an extraordinary
28 percentage point margin.
After years of inflation
and now high interest rates that have
[00:07:54]
made mortgages far less affordable.
So the lack of concern about the housing
crisis, the lack of solutions
for that very real problem that is
crushing Americans across the board
and certainly crushing young Americans
who are getting ready to start families.
[00:08:12]
They want to buy a home.
They really want to get their lives going.
The fact that they can't turn
to the Democratic Party to help them
on those issues, or even propose
some good solutions for that issue,
is starting to hurt the Democratic Party
and namely, Joe Biden.
According to the survey,
less than 1% of poll respondents under 30
[00:08:31]
rated the current economy as excellent,
including zero poll respondents
in that age group in three states Arizona,
Nevada and Wisconsin.
And look, it's not just the New York Times
Siena College poll that is
[00:08:47]
just full of this damning information,
damning results for Joe Biden
and his chances of winning reelection.
So there was also a CBS news poll over
the weekend that found that Trump is ahead
of Biden nationally, 51% to Biden's 48%.
[00:09:05]
Now, keep in mind
it's within the margin of error.
But nonetheless, I mean,
this is not a good sign for Biden.
Clearly, we keep seeing poll after poll
that indicates that Biden is
either neck and neck with Donald Trump
or Donald Trump has a slight edge.
[00:09:21]
And look, to be clear, the margin of error
for that CBS poll is 2.6 points.
So Trump is leading 51 to 48.
So you know it's plus or minus okay.
Trump might actually be leading
by more than that.
We don't know exactly.
[00:09:37]
But at the end of the day,
Trump is leading Biden in that poll,
even if it's slightly.
And when Democrats were asked
how they feel about Biden versus Trump
and that whole rematch in 2024, here's
what they had to say about it. 74% of
[00:09:52]
the respondents said that they feel pretty
nervous about it, 72% are frustrated.
Only 23% of.
Respondents in the CBS poll said that they
felt any excitement over that rematch.
And of course, Team Biden is trying to
play down the seriousness of these polls.
[00:10:09]
They noted that a poll predicted
that former President Barack Obama
would lose a year before the 2012
presidential election took place, and that
was when Obama was running for reelection,
up against Republican Mitt Romney.
But let's just allow that argument
to absorb for a minute and then consider
[00:10:29]
the fact that when it came to Obama
versus Romney, we were talking about
a Democratic incumbent who was incredibly
charismatic, incredibly energetic,
incredibly young, and more importantly,
someone who was smart enough to revert
[00:10:46]
back to his hope and change talking points
that got him elected in 2008.
Obama immediately snapped back to the
economic populist rhetoric and messaging.
Whereas with Joe Biden, I mean, he's
not the charismatic one in this equation.
[00:11:03]
Joe Biden is the individual who appears
too old, does not appear sharp,
seems incredibly sleepy.
Then you have Donald Trump,
who again, is very animated,
seems energetic, seems charismatic,
tends to make audiences laugh, and more
[00:11:20]
importantly, this is, I think, going to
potentially carry Trump over if he does,
in fact win the Republican nomination.
He's got a cult like following.
He has incredibly loyal supporters.
Mitt Romney didn't have that.
Mitt Romney did not have the charisma.
[00:11:37]
So it's easier to dismiss
some of the polling that came out
prior to the 2012 presidential election.
I think the consistency of the polls
that we've been seeing
in regard to the Trump Biden rematch
shows that Biden is, in fact, in a lot
[00:11:52]
of trouble, but he remains undeterred.
He wants to run for reelection,
and anyone who is considering
entering the race is ignored.
You know, even if it's an
establishment Democrats,
that individual is completely ignored.
The Democratic establishment refuses
to have any debates, and what they're
[00:12:09]
doing right now is playing with fire.
You have them constantly fearmongering
about the kind of threat
that Donald Trump poses,
but their actions speak louder than words.
If they genuinely think that Donald Trump
is a threat to the country,
is a threat to the democracy, well,
then they would act like it and they would
[00:12:26]
want to run the best possible candidate.
That is not what they're doing.
They want Biden to run for reelection,
regardless of how harmful it will be
at the chances of a Democrat controlling
the executive branch after 2024.
Now, a Biden campaign spokesperson,
Kevin Munoz, said this in a statement.
[00:12:45]
Coming off those historic midterms,
President Biden's campaign
is hard at work reaching and mobilizing
our diverse, winning coalition of voters
one year out on the choice
between our winning popular agenda.
I don't know about that.
[00:13:01]
And MAGA Republicans unpopular extremism
will win in 2024 by putting our heads down
and doing the work,
not by fretting about a poll.
But again, I just invite you all to
consider the nickel and diming that took
place in regard to the American people.
[00:13:18]
As the negotiations in Congress were
underway for Biden's Build Back Better
Agenda for the Inflation Reduction Act.
Lot of nickel and diming
when it came to important social programs
that would have improved Americans lives,
including improving child care.
[00:13:35]
So parents feel comfortable.
Actually, first of all, having children
and being able to afford childcare
so they can go to work.
There was supposed to be provisions
in there to help with compensation
for those engaging in elder care.
There was supposed to be provisions
in order to make higher education
[00:13:54]
far more affordable for American students.
There were supposed to be
more robust provisions to help lower
the price of pharmaceutical drugs.
All of that stuff got nickeled and dimed.
But the second Hamas engaged in that
disgusting, vicious and brutal terrorist
[00:14:11]
attack in Israel, that was all it took for
Biden to go on the world stage and ask the
American people, along with our lawmakers
to approve $106 billion for War funding.
Now, it's not all for Israel.
Of course, some of that money
goes to Ukraine.
[00:14:26]
Some of that money
goes to bolster the border.
Some of that money goes toward
humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip.
But nonetheless, I think that the sense
of urgency displayed by Biden doesn't
bode well for him, as the American people
are struggling economically.
[00:14:42]
It's just it really doesn't take a rocket
scientist to figure any of this out.
And look, even David Axelrod
is starting to ring the alarm on this.
So I'm going to give you a few of
the posts that he put out there on X,
formerly known as Twitter.
[00:14:57]
It's very late to change horses.
Is. A lot will happen in the next year
that no one can predict.
And Biden's team says
his resolve to run is firm.
He's defied conventional wisdom before,
but this will send tremors of doubt
[00:15:13]
through the party not bedwetting,
but legitimate concern.
I think he's right about that.
He continues to say that the greatest
concern is that his biggest liability
is the one thing he can't change.
Among all the unpredictable,
there is one thing that is sure the age
[00:15:31]
arrow only points in one direction.
Only Joe Biden can make this decision.
If he continues to run, he will be
the nominee of the Democratic Party.
What he needs to decide
is whether that is wise, whether it's
in his best interest or the country's.
[00:15:48]
I mean, that is, in my opinion, quite
a nudge toward Biden and toward his allies
to basically stand down and make room
for someone else to run in his place.
And he also said that the stakes
of this miscalculation, Axelrod said
[00:16:03]
that the stakes of this miscalculation
are too dramatic to ignore.
And look, the one thing I'll leave you
with, which I think is so incredibly
important to keep in mind, the same poll
actually took a generic Democrat,
just a generic Democrat, and put that
generic Democrat up against Donald Trump
[00:16:22]
to see what the results would be.
And guess what?
The same New York Times poll found that
a generic Democrat not named Joe Biden
would actually beat Trump by eight points.
So let that sink in.
Consider the selfishness of Joe Biden,
and consider just how unserious
[00:16:40]
the Democrat Democratic Party
appears to be, when, on one hand,
they endlessly fearmonger about the threat
that Donald Trump poses to this democracy.
But then, on the other hand, they
continue on with this magical thinking
in regard to an incredibly unpopular
Democratic president who is now running
[00:16:59]
for reelection after he had promised
he would not seek a second term.
Think it's the best way
to think about this story as we rapidly
move toward barrel, toward an iceberg.
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