The New York Times and Siena College. It shows that Donald Trump is leading Nevada in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and Michigan tight races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. How worried are you about the president's reelection campaign? [00:00:16] I was concerned before these polls, and I'm concerned now. You just heard from a prominent Democrat in Congress who is concerned about the chances of President Joe Biden winning reelection, and he should have been concerned for quite some time already. [00:00:31] However, a startling new poll shows Trump is, in fact leading Biden in five key battleground states for the 2024 presidential election. Now, even some of the hard core establishment Democrats are starting [00:00:46] to come out in the public and vocalize their concerns, as you just heard. And we'll get back to that in just a moment. But first, why don't we get to the details of this new New York Times Siena College poll, which was published exactly one year out of Election Day. [00:01:02] So if you take a look at this chart, it'll show you exactly what we're talking about here. So Trump leads Biden 52% to 41%, in Nevada, 49% to 43% in Georgia, 49% to 44% in Arizona, 48% to Biden's, 43% in Michigan [00:01:20] and 48% to Biden's 44% in Pennsylvania, which is within the margin of error. But that is the only state within the margin of error. Then you have Wisconsin, the only battleground state where Biden is polling higher at 47% to Trump's 44%. [00:01:38] And that's also actually well within the margin of error, which, you know, is concerning. So the sampling error is between 4.4 and 4.8 points. And if Trump were to win by the margins that are represented in the surveys [00:01:55] published just this past Sunday, what you just saw, he would get more than 300 electoral college votes and easily win the presidential election, according to CNN. Across these six battleground states, registered voters give Biden [00:02:10] low job approval marks 38% approve, with just 19% describing the economy as excellent or good. At the same time, only 42% in these states rate Trump favorably, similar to Biden's 41% favorability rating now registered voters. [00:02:30] This poll, of course, has to do with likely voters how they're likely to vote. And I do think it's interesting to see the consistency across these types of polls, which show that Biden's low favorability really ties into how Americans feel about the economy. [00:02:48] They think about inflation, they think about gas prices. They don't think about what impacts gas prices, or the fact that Biden actually has very little impact on keeping gas prices low. It really has to do with oil production in the OPEC plus cartel. [00:03:05] But aside from that, a lot of Americans are struggling economically. And I do think that Biden has had a number of missteps, including the urgency in which he addressed the American people and demanded $106 billion in war funding for other countries, when he knows full well that the American [00:03:23] people, you know, working class citizens are struggling right now. At the same time, you have a very real migrant crisis, which maybe for the first time, isn't just impacting border towns, it's also impacting a lot of these, you know, Democratic strongholds in these big blue cities. [00:03:39] And so Biden hasn't really addressed that appropriately. And voters are starting to get incredibly frustrated as a result. So registered voters in these six states, according to this New York Times Siena College poll, give Trump the edge over Biden in trust to handle the economy, [00:03:59] immigration, national security and the Israeli-palestine conflict. They actually think Trump would have done a much better job in handling this conflict than Joe Biden has. So while Joe Biden is trying to present himself as this strong leader [00:04:15] who is really going out of his way to defend Israel, it's really not playing out so well for him here at home. A lot of Democratic voters are not very happy with his handling of that, especially because they see the images coming out of Gaza. They see the high civilian death toll, and they want the violence to stop. [00:04:33] Then they turn to Biden to see what he's saying. They turn to Anthony Blinken to see what he's saying. And it's just wall to wall administration officials saying that Israel has the right to defend itself. We are not going to tell them to engage in a cease fire. [00:04:48] We might gently nudge toward a humanitarian pause, which they've now rebranded as a tactical pause. But the American people aren't buying it, and it's clear that even. When it comes to that issue. The majority of voters think that Trump would do a better job than Biden. [00:05:05] Now, the voters say that they do trust Biden more than Trump on two issues. The first is abortion, which I'm very curious to see whether it will kind of carry Democrats through this upcoming election. [00:05:20] It certainly helped Democrats during the midterms, but voters might be thinking about other issues by the time we hit the general election. They also think that Biden would do better with closing the split on like, handling democracy, making sure to protect democracy. [00:05:36] So with that said, let's take a look at the next chart, because it'll give you some more interesting details about how American voters are feeling about the two candidates. When asked whether Trump and Biden are too old. A whopping 71% said that Biden was too old, with only 39% saying the same of Trump. [00:05:54] Now Trump is up there in age as well. But if you see the speaking styles of the two candidates here, it's very obvious that Trump is more charismatic. He's more energetic, for better or worse, whereas Biden tends to look into the camera as if he's squinting into the sun and speaks slowly, seems tired. [00:06:13] In fact, sometimes even says that he's tired and he's ready to go to bed, not playing out so well for him. 66% said that Biden doesn't have the mental sharpness needed to be president, compared to 44% who said the same of Trump [00:06:31] and 55% said Trump does not have the temperament to be president, while 51% said the same of Biden. And honestly, that tracks that. Trump tends to get fiery, salty, angry. He tends to throw tantrums. [00:06:47] Biden seems calm, but also incredibly sleepy. Now, Biden's margin of support among nonwhite voters under the age of 45 has actually plummeted, and this is the most damning result, in my opinion, from the poll. [00:07:03] Because, remember, Biden barely won in some of those battleground states in 2020, and it was the young vote that turned up to save Biden. That might not happen this time around. So Biden's margin of support among nonwhite voters under 45 [00:07:20] has plummeted from 39 in 2020 to just six, according to this latest survey. But most concerning of all is his shedding of support among those young voters. So voters under 30 favor Biden by only a single percentage point. [00:07:37] Okay, so let's put that graphic up. I'll go ahead and read that because it conveys really important information here. So voters under 30 said they trusted Trump. More on the economy by an extraordinary 28 percentage point margin. After years of inflation and now high interest rates that have [00:07:54] made mortgages far less affordable. So the lack of concern about the housing crisis, the lack of solutions for that very real problem that is crushing Americans across the board and certainly crushing young Americans who are getting ready to start families. [00:08:12] They want to buy a home. They really want to get their lives going. The fact that they can't turn to the Democratic Party to help them on those issues, or even propose some good solutions for that issue, is starting to hurt the Democratic Party and namely, Joe Biden. According to the survey, less than 1% of poll respondents under 30 [00:08:31] rated the current economy as excellent, including zero poll respondents in that age group in three states Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. And look, it's not just the New York Times Siena College poll that is [00:08:47] just full of this damning information, damning results for Joe Biden and his chances of winning reelection. So there was also a CBS news poll over the weekend that found that Trump is ahead of Biden nationally, 51% to Biden's 48%. [00:09:05] Now, keep in mind it's within the margin of error. But nonetheless, I mean, this is not a good sign for Biden. Clearly, we keep seeing poll after poll that indicates that Biden is either neck and neck with Donald Trump or Donald Trump has a slight edge. [00:09:21] And look, to be clear, the margin of error for that CBS poll is 2.6 points. So Trump is leading 51 to 48. So you know it's plus or minus okay. Trump might actually be leading by more than that. We don't know exactly. [00:09:37] But at the end of the day, Trump is leading Biden in that poll, even if it's slightly. And when Democrats were asked how they feel about Biden versus Trump and that whole rematch in 2024, here's what they had to say about it. 74% of [00:09:52] the respondents said that they feel pretty nervous about it, 72% are frustrated. Only 23% of. Respondents in the CBS poll said that they felt any excitement over that rematch. And of course, Team Biden is trying to play down the seriousness of these polls. [00:10:09] They noted that a poll predicted that former President Barack Obama would lose a year before the 2012 presidential election took place, and that was when Obama was running for reelection, up against Republican Mitt Romney. But let's just allow that argument to absorb for a minute and then consider [00:10:29] the fact that when it came to Obama versus Romney, we were talking about a Democratic incumbent who was incredibly charismatic, incredibly energetic, incredibly young, and more importantly, someone who was smart enough to revert [00:10:46] back to his hope and change talking points that got him elected in 2008. Obama immediately snapped back to the economic populist rhetoric and messaging. Whereas with Joe Biden, I mean, he's not the charismatic one in this equation. [00:11:03] Joe Biden is the individual who appears too old, does not appear sharp, seems incredibly sleepy. Then you have Donald Trump, who again, is very animated, seems energetic, seems charismatic, tends to make audiences laugh, and more [00:11:20] importantly, this is, I think, going to potentially carry Trump over if he does, in fact win the Republican nomination. He's got a cult like following. He has incredibly loyal supporters. Mitt Romney didn't have that. Mitt Romney did not have the charisma. [00:11:37] So it's easier to dismiss some of the polling that came out prior to the 2012 presidential election. I think the consistency of the polls that we've been seeing in regard to the Trump Biden rematch shows that Biden is, in fact, in a lot [00:11:52] of trouble, but he remains undeterred. He wants to run for reelection, and anyone who is considering entering the race is ignored. You know, even if it's an establishment Democrats, that individual is completely ignored. The Democratic establishment refuses to have any debates, and what they're [00:12:09] doing right now is playing with fire. You have them constantly fearmongering about the kind of threat that Donald Trump poses, but their actions speak louder than words. If they genuinely think that Donald Trump is a threat to the country, is a threat to the democracy, well, then they would act like it and they would [00:12:26] want to run the best possible candidate. That is not what they're doing. They want Biden to run for reelection, regardless of how harmful it will be at the chances of a Democrat controlling the executive branch after 2024. Now, a Biden campaign spokesperson, Kevin Munoz, said this in a statement. [00:12:45] Coming off those historic midterms, President Biden's campaign is hard at work reaching and mobilizing our diverse, winning coalition of voters one year out on the choice between our winning popular agenda. I don't know about that. [00:13:01] And MAGA Republicans unpopular extremism will win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll. But again, I just invite you all to consider the nickel and diming that took place in regard to the American people. [00:13:18] As the negotiations in Congress were underway for Biden's Build Back Better Agenda for the Inflation Reduction Act. Lot of nickel and diming when it came to important social programs that would have improved Americans lives, including improving child care. [00:13:35] So parents feel comfortable. Actually, first of all, having children and being able to afford childcare so they can go to work. There was supposed to be provisions in there to help with compensation for those engaging in elder care. There was supposed to be provisions in order to make higher education [00:13:54] far more affordable for American students. There were supposed to be more robust provisions to help lower the price of pharmaceutical drugs. All of that stuff got nickeled and dimed. But the second Hamas engaged in that disgusting, vicious and brutal terrorist [00:14:11] attack in Israel, that was all it took for Biden to go on the world stage and ask the American people, along with our lawmakers to approve $106 billion for War funding. Now, it's not all for Israel. Of course, some of that money goes to Ukraine. [00:14:26] Some of that money goes to bolster the border. Some of that money goes toward humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip. But nonetheless, I think that the sense of urgency displayed by Biden doesn't bode well for him, as the American people are struggling economically. [00:14:42] It's just it really doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure any of this out. And look, even David Axelrod is starting to ring the alarm on this. So I'm going to give you a few of the posts that he put out there on X, formerly known as Twitter. [00:14:57] It's very late to change horses. Is. A lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict. And Biden's team says his resolve to run is firm. He's defied conventional wisdom before, but this will send tremors of doubt [00:15:13] through the party not bedwetting, but legitimate concern. I think he's right about that. He continues to say that the greatest concern is that his biggest liability is the one thing he can't change. Among all the unpredictable, there is one thing that is sure the age [00:15:31] arrow only points in one direction. Only Joe Biden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise, whether it's in his best interest or the country's. [00:15:48] I mean, that is, in my opinion, quite a nudge toward Biden and toward his allies to basically stand down and make room for someone else to run in his place. And he also said that the stakes of this miscalculation, Axelrod said [00:16:03] that the stakes of this miscalculation are too dramatic to ignore. And look, the one thing I'll leave you with, which I think is so incredibly important to keep in mind, the same poll actually took a generic Democrat, just a generic Democrat, and put that generic Democrat up against Donald Trump [00:16:22] to see what the results would be. And guess what? The same New York Times poll found that a generic Democrat not named Joe Biden would actually beat Trump by eight points. So let that sink in. Consider the selfishness of Joe Biden, and consider just how unserious [00:16:40] the Democrat Democratic Party appears to be, when, on one hand, they endlessly fearmonger about the threat that Donald Trump poses to this democracy. But then, on the other hand, they continue on with this magical thinking in regard to an incredibly unpopular Democratic president who is now running [00:16:59] for reelection after he had promised he would not seek a second term. Think it's the best way to think about this story as we rapidly move toward barrel, toward an iceberg. 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